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How aging of the labor force affects equilibrium unemployment

  • Hetze, Pascal
  • Ochsen, Carsten

This paper argues that aging of the labor force affects job creation and job destruction. To analyze this, we extend a standard model of equilibrium unemployment and search in the labor market by the distinction between age specific separation risks and a productivity differential between young and elderly workers. Based on the theo- retical model, we identify four regimes of changes in the Beveridge Curve and job creation which can occur if the age structure varies. We also present an econometric model to find out which country relates to which regime. According to the estimates we can identify all four cases. For example, Spain and the US may experience positive effects on employment when the labor force grows older. In contrast to this, the unemployment rate in Germany and Japan will rise as a consequence of the increase in the share of elderly workers.

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Paper provided by University of Rostock, Institute of Economics in its series Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory with number 57.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:roswps:57
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Web page: http://www.wiwi.uni-rostock.de/vwl/

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  1. Miles, David K, 1997. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Düzgün, Ismail & Weiss, Matthias, 2005. "Altern und Produktivität: Zum Stand der Forschung," MEA discussion paper series 05073, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  3. Barbara Petrongolo & Christopher Pissarides, 2000. "Looking into the black box: a survey of the matching function," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2122, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  4. Coles, Melvyn G & Smith, Eric, 1994. "Cross-Section Estimation of the Matching Function: Evidence from England and Wales," CEPR Discussion Papers 966, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Burgess, Simon M., 1994. "Matching models and labour market flows," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 809-816, April.
  6. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, March.
  7. Acemoglu, D, 1996. "Technology, Unemployment and Efficiency," Working papers 96-26, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  8. Friedrich Breyer & Klaus Stolte, 2001. "Demographic change, endogenous labor supply and the political feasibility of pension reform," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 409-424.
  9. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2005. "Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance," PGDA Working Papers 0105, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  10. Peter Batey & Moss Madden, 1999. "The employment impact of demographic change: A regional analysis," Papers in Regional Science, Springer, vol. 78(1), pages 69-87.
  11. van Ours, Jan C., 1995. "An empirical note on employed and unemployed job search," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 447-452, October.
  12. Oliver Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1989. "The Beveridge Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 1-76.
  13. Pissarides, Christopher A. & Wadsworth, Jonathan, 1994. "On-the-job search: Some empirical evidence from Britain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 385-401, February.
  14. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, June.
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