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Extreme weather events and economic activity: The case of low water levels on the Rhine river

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  • Ademmer, Martin
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Mösle, Saskia

Abstract

In this paper, we exploit exogenous variation in navigability of the Rhine river to analyze the impact of weather-related supply shocks on economic activity in Germany. Our analysis shows that low water levels lead to transportation disruptions that cause a significant and economically meaningful decrease of economic activity. In a month with 30 days of low water, industrial production in Germany declines by about 1 percent, ceteris paribus. Our analysis highlights the importance of extreme weather events for business cycle analysis and contributes to gauging the costs of extreme weather events in advanced economies. Furthermore, we provide a specific example for an idiosyncratic supply shock to a small sector that amplifies to an economically meaningful effect at the macroeconomic level.

Suggested Citation

  • Ademmer, Martin & Jannsen, Nils & Mösle, Saskia, 2020. "Extreme weather events and economic activity: The case of low water levels on the Rhine river," Kiel Working Papers 2155, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2155
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Müllerklein, Daniel & Fontaine, Pirmin, 2025. "Resilient transportation network design with disruption uncertainty and lead times," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 322(3), pages 827-840.
    2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Meuchelböck, Saskia & Sonnenberg, Nils, 2022. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Herbst 2022 - Konjunktur auf Entzug [German Economy Autumn 2022 - Consumption-driven recession]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 95, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Hungerland Wolf-Fabian & Altmeppen Christoph, 2024. "Climate Change in the EU’s Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Sciendo, vol. 59(3), pages 176-182.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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