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Deutsche Wirtschaft im Herbst 2024: Konjunktur stottert in kraftlose Erholung

Author

Listed:
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Hoffmann, Timo
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Schröder, Christian
  • Sonnenberg, Nils

Abstract

Die deutsche Wirtschaft kommt nicht in die Gänge. Die vorsichtigen Erholungssignale, die vor einigen Monaten auszumachen waren, haben sich nicht verfestigt. Mittlerweile zeichnet sich ab, dass die Wirtschaftsleistung vorerst weiter stagnieren wird. Das Verarbeitende Gewerbe befindet sich in der Rezession und die privaten Haushalte halten sich trotz steigender Realeinkommen beim Konsum zurück. Die Investitionen leiden weiter unter der hohen Unsicherheit und den restriktiven Finanzierungsbedingungen. Ab dem kommenden Jahr dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt zwar wieder etwas steigen. So lässt die restriktive Wirkung der Geldpolitik allmählich nach. Die weiter steigenden Realeinkommen dürften zudem zu einer moderaten Belebung des privaten Konsums führen, und die wirtschaftliche Expansion in den Absatzmärkten wird das Exportgeschäft voraussichtlich etwas stimulieren. In Anbetracht des derzeit geringen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktionsniveaus bleibt die Erholung aber kraftlos. Insgesamt haben wir unsere Prognose nach unten angepasst. Für das laufen-de Jahr rechnen wir nun mit einem Rückgang des Bruttoinlandsprodukts von 0,1 Prozent (Sommerprognose: +0,2 Prozent), im kommenden Jahr dürfte es um 0,5 Prozent zulegen (1,1 Prozent). Im Jahr 2026 wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt wohl um 1,1 Prozent steigen, auch gestützt von der höheren Zahl an Arbeitstagen, die 0,3 Prozentpunkte zum Zuwachs beitragen werden. Die Inflation ist weiter zurückgegangen und wird in den kommenden beiden Jahren wohl bei 2 Prozent liegen. Die Arbeitslosigkeit dürfte angesichts der schwachen Konjunktur von 5,7 Prozent im Jahr 2023 auf 6,1 Prozent im Jahr 2025 steigen. In den kommenden Jahren werden zunehmend die Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels sichtbar werden und voraussichtlich zu einem Rückgang der Erwerbstätigkeit im Jahr 2026 führen. Das Budgetdefizit dürfte vor allem aufgrund der wegfallenden Preisbremsen von 2,6 Prozent in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahr 2023 auf 1,7 Prozent im Jahr 2025 zurückgehen.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Schröder, Christian & Sonnenberg, Nils, 2024. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Herbst 2024: Konjunktur stottert in kraftlose Erholung," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 117, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:302805
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Krohn, Johanna & Reents, Jan & Schröder, Christian, 2025. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Herbst 2025: Konjunktur noch ohne Schwung [German Economy in Autumn 2025: Economy yet to gain momentum]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 127, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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