IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/140409.html

Inflation, supply shocks and the case for a cautious and differentiated monetary policy response

Author

Listed:
  • Leonard, Clara
  • Braun, Ben
  • Klooster, Jens van 't
  • Monnet, Eric

Abstract

The Hormuz shock of February 2026 confronts the European Central Bank (ECB) with a familiar dilemma: inaction can risk entrenching inflation, while tightening risks deepening the slowdown and penalising renewable energy and cleantech investment. We argue that the ECB should be cautious and, if tightening proves necessary, ensure its operations shield renewable energy and cleantech sectors. Our analysis also reveals a growing gap between the ECB's communication on fossil fuel risks and its policy framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonard, Clara & Braun, Ben & Klooster, Jens van 't & Monnet, Eric, 2026. "Inflation, supply shocks and the case for a cautious and differentiated monetary policy response," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 140409, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:140409
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/140409/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Iulia Lupu & Adina Criste & Tudor Ciumara & Camelia Milea & Radu Lupu, 2024. "Addressing the Renewable Energy Challenges through the Lens of Monetary Policy—Insights from the Literature," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-31, September.
    2. Serebriakova, Alexandra & Polzin, Friedemann & Sanders, Mark, 2026. "Monetary policy and energy installation: Implications for the European green transition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    3. Hahn, Elke, 2023. "How have unit profits contributed to the recent strengthening of euro area domestic price pressures?," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    4. Semieniuk, Gregor & Weber, Isabella M. & Weaver, Iain S. & Wasner, Evan & Braun, Benjamin & Holden, Philip B. & Salas, Pablo & Mercure, Jean-Francois & Edwards, Neil R., 2025. "Best of times, worst of times: record fossil-fuel profits, inflation and inequality," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 129170, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Diego R. Känzig, 2023. "The Unequal Economic Consequences of Carbon Pricing," NBER Working Papers 31221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Axelle Arquié & Malte Thie, 2023. "Energy, Inflation and Market Power: Excess Pass-Through in France," Working Papers 2023-16, CEPII research center.
    7. Marijn A. Bolhuis & Judd N. L. Cramer & Karl Oskar Schulz & Lawrence H. Summers, 2024. "The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly," NBER Working Papers 32163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Tobias S. Schmidt & Bjarne Steffen & Florian Egli & Michael Pahle & Oliver Tietjen & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2019. "Adverse effects of rising interest rates on sustainable energy transitions," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 879-885, September.
    9. Axelle Arquie & Malte Thie, 2023. "Energy, Inflation and Market Power: Excess Pass-Through in France," IMK Working Paper 220-2023, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    10. Isabella M. Webe & Evan Wasner, 2023. "Sellers’ inflation, profits and conflict: why can large firms hike prices in an emergency?," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 183-213, April.
    11. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.
    12. Giovanni Sgaravatti & Simone Tagliapietra & Georg Zachmann, 2023. "Adjusting to the energy shock- the right policies for European industry," Bruegel Policy Brief node_9072, Bruegel.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weber, Isabella M. & Wasner, Evan & Lang, Markus & Braun, Benjamin & van ’t Klooster, Jens, 2025. "Implicit coordination in sellers’ inflation: How cost shocks facilitate price hikes," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 690-712.
    2. Kremer, Elise & Reissl, Severin & Fierro, Luca E. & Emmerling, Johannes & Lamperti, Francesco & Roventini, Andrea, 2025. "Energy price shocks in the European Union: Macroeconomic impacts, distributional effects and policy responses," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Weber, Isabella & Wasner, Evan & Lang, Markus & Braun, Benjamin & Klooster, Jens van’t, 2025. "Implicit coordination in sellers’ inflation: how cost shocks facilitate price hikes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128231, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Ciambezi, Leonardo & Guerini, Mattia & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2025. "Accounting for the multiple sources of inflation: An agent-based model investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    5. Ferreira, Vicente & Abreu, Alexandre & Louçã, Francisco, 2025. "The rise and fall of inflation in the Euro Area (2021-2024): A heterodox perspective," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 103-110.
    6. Memmen, Marvin & Ipsen, Leonhard & Schulz-Gebhard, Jan, 2025. "Sellers' inflation, price dispersion and substitutability: Schumpeter meets Lerner," BERG Working Paper Series 209, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    7. Boto-García, David & Albert, Juan Francisco & Gómez-Fernández, Nerea, 2024. "Carbon price shocks and tourism demand," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    8. Etienne de L'Estoile & Mathilde Salin, 2024. "Who Takes the Land? Quantifying the Use of Built-Up Land by French Economic Sectors to Assess Their Vulnerability to the No Net Land Take Policy," Working papers 941, Banque de France.
    9. Nicolás Aguila & Joscha Wullweber, 2024. "Greener and cheaper: green monetary policy in the era of inflation and high interest rates," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(1), pages 39-60, March.
    10. Serebriakova, Alexandra & Polzin, Friedemann & Sanders, Mark, 2026. "Monetary policy and energy installation: Implications for the European green transition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    11. Katia Gallegos Torres & Jakob Lehr, 2026. "The Labor Market Impact of the Energy Crisis: Evidence from Germany," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_730, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    12. Angelico, Cristina, 2024. "The green transition and firms' expectations on future prices: Survey evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 519-543.
    13. Semieniuk, Gregor & Weber, Isabella M. & Weaver, Iain S. & Wasner, Evan & Braun, Benjamin & Holden, Philip B. & Salas, Pablo & Mercure, Jean-Francois & Edwards, Neil R., 2025. "Best of times, worst of times: record fossil-fuel profits, inflation and inequality," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 129170, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Maarten van Rooij, 2023. "How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 109-152, July.
    15. Farkas, Beáta & Pelle, Anita & Somosi, Sarolta, 2023. "Az Európai Unió és a geoökonómiai kihívások - ipar- és versenypolitikai válaszok [The European Union and geoeconomic challenges: industrial and competition policy responses]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1193-1212.
    16. Marco Bottone & Cristina Conflitti & Marianna Riggi & Alex Tagliabracci, 2021. "Firms' inflation expectations and pricing strategies during Covid-19," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 619, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2020. "The Hidden Heterogeneity of Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations: The Role of Preferences," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-666, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, revised Feb 2023.
    18. N. A. Karlova & E. V. Puzanova & I. V. Bogacheva & A. G. Morozov, 2020. "How Are Inflation Expectations of Enterprises Formed: Survey Results," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 522-532, September.
    19. Djeneba Dramé & Florian Léon, 2025. "Do firms react to monetary policy in developing countries? [European Economic Review]," Post-Print hal-05172185, HAL.
    20. Soysal, Emilie Rosenlund, 2025. "Market-based wind power investments under financial frictions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 391(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:140409. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.