IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkkb/300291.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Deutsche Wirtschaft in Sommer 2024: Erholung kommt mühsam in Gang
[German Economy Summer 2024: Recovery gets off to a slow start]

Author

Listed:
  • Beckmann, Joscha
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Hoffmann, Timo
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Schröder, Christian
  • Sonnenberg, Nils

Abstract

Die deutsche Wirtschaft lässt die Rezession hinter sich. Ausweislich der Frühindikatoren wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt nach dem Anstieg im ersten Quartal weiter aufwärtsgerichtet bleiben. Im Verlauf des Jahres werden die steigenden real verfügbaren Einkommen und das anziehende Auslandsgeschäft die wirtschaftliche Aktivität stimulieren. Zudem wird die Wirkung der strafferen Geldpolitik auf die Expansionskräfte allmählich nachlassen. Eine hohe konjunkturelle Dynamik zeichnet sich indes nicht ab. So befinden sich das Geschäfts- und Konsumklima trotz Aufwärtstendenz weiterhin auf niedrigem Niveau. Zudem wird der Expansionsspielraum zusehends durch strukturelle Hemmnisse - darunter nicht zuletzt den demografischen Wandel - begrenzt. Alles in allem dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im laufenden Jahr um 0,2 Prozent (Frühjahrsprognose: 0,1 Prozent) und im Jahr 2025 um 1,1 Prozent (Frühjahrsprognose: 1,2 Prozent) steigen. Die Inflation hat sich zwar merklich abgeflacht und wird voraussichtlich im laufenden Jahr 2,2 Prozent und im kommenden Jahr 1,9 Prozent betragen, die Kernrate bleibt aber vorerst erhöht. Der Arbeitsmarkt zeigt sich weiterhin recht robust. Die Beschäftigung wird angesichts des demografischen Wandels allerdings nur noch leicht steigen. Die Arbeitslosenquote wird erst im Jahr 2025 wieder etwas auf dann 5,8 Prozent sinken. Das Finanzierungsdefizit des Staates dürfte von 2,4 Prozent in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahr 2023 auf 1,2 Prozent im Jahr 2025 zurückgehen. Die Schuldenquote wird bei rund 63 Prozent in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt verharren.

Suggested Citation

  • Beckmann, Joscha & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Schröder, Christian & Sonnenberg, Nils, 2024. "Deutsche Wirtschaft in Sommer 2024: Erholung kommt mühsam in Gang [German Economy Summer 2024: Recovery gets off to a slow start]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 115, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:300291
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/300291/1/1895129974.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Lehmann & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2024. "Struktureller Wandel im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe: Produktion unterzeichnet Bruttowertschöpfung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 77(02), pages 55-60, February.
    2. Stefan Kooths & Ulrich Stolzenburg, 2018. "Zur Exportabhängigkeit der deutschen Konjunktur [The Export Dependency of the German Business Cycle]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 98(3), pages 219-220, March.
    3. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    4. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    5. Viktoria C. E. Langer & Wolfgang Maennig & Felix Richter, 2018. "The Olympic Games as a News Shock," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(6), pages 884-906, August.
    6. Markus Brückner & Evi Pappa, 2015. "News Shocks in the Data: Olympic Games and Their Macroeconomic Effects," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(7), pages 1339-1367, October.
    7. Weber, Enzo, 2024. "The Dovish Turnaround: Germany’s Social Benefit Reform and Job Findings," IAB-Discussion Paper 202407, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    8. repec:iab:iabdpa:20247 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Rishav Bista, 2017. "Revisiting the Olympic Effect," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 279-291, May.
    10. Beckmann, Joscha & Jannsen, Nils, 2021. "Bedeutung von Lieferengpässen für die laufende Produktion in Deutschland," Kiel Insight 2021.09, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Jannsen, Nils, 2024. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Auswirkungen von Fußball-Großveranstaltungen," Kiel Insight 2024.05, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Beckmann, Joscha & Jannsen, Nils, 2024. "Auftragseingänge, Industrieproduktion und Bruttowertschöpfung im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe," Kiel Insight 2024.04, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Firgo, Matthias, 2021. "The causal economic effects of Olympic Games on host regions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Raffaello Bronzini & Sauro Mocetti & Matteo Mongardini, 2020. "The economic effects of big events: Evidence from the great jubilee 2000 in Rome," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 801-822, September.
    5. Jason Lennard & Finn Meinecke & Solomos Solomou, 2023. "Measuring inflation expectations in interwar Britain," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(3), pages 844-870, August.
    6. Michał Marcin Kobierecki & Michał Pierzgalski, 2022. "Sports Mega-Events and Economic Growth: A Synthetic Control Approach," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 567-597, June.
    7. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Schröder, Christian & Sonnenberg, Nils, 2024. "Deutsche Wirtschaft in Frührjahr 2024: Erholung mit Hindernissen [German Economy in Spring 2024: Recovery with Obstacles]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 112, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Pang, Ke & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Macroeconomic consequences of the real-financial nexus: Imbalances and spillovers between China and the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 195-212.
    9. Jean-Jacques Gouguet & Christophe Lepetit, 2017. "The Economic Impact Of Euro 2016. Methodological Aspects," Rivista di Diritto ed Economia dello Sport, Centro di diritto e business dello Sport, vol. 13(2), pages 153-171, settembre.
    10. Barbopoulos, Leonidas G. & Adra, Samer & Saunders, Anthony, 2020. "Macroeconomic news and acquirer returns in M&As: The impact of investor alertness," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Uribe, Jorge M. & Chuliá, Helena & Guillén, Montserrat, 2017. "Uncertainty, systemic shocks and the global banking sector: Has the crisis modified their relationship?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 52-68.
    12. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.
    13. Timothy Besley & Thiemo Fetzer & Hannes Mueller, 2023. "How Big Is the Media Multiplier? Evidence from Dyadic News Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10619, CESifo.
    14. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Obojska, Lidia, 2023. "Do commodity markets catch a cold from stock markets? Modelling uncertainty spillovers using Google search trends and wavelet coherence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    15. Selmi, Refk & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2018. "Is Bitcoin a hedge, a safe haven or a diversifier for oil price movements? A comparison with gold," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 787-801.
    16. Stavrakeva, Vania & Tang, Jenny, 2019. "The Dollar During the Great Recession: US Monetary Policy Signaling and The Flight To Safety," CEPR Discussion Papers 14034, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Matthias Firgo & Oliver Fritz, 2023. "Regionalwirtschaftliche und touristische Effekte von Sportgroßveranstaltungen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(7), pages 481-490, July.
    18. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis & Al-Khasawneh, Jamal A., 2024. "Asymmetric effects of economic policy uncertainty on demand for money in developed countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    19. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2019. "Islamic and conventional equity markets: Two sides of the same coin, or not?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 191-205.
    20. Olmos, Lorena & Bellido, Héctor & Román-Aso, Juan A., 2020. "The effects of mega-events on perceived corruption," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:300291. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.