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Deutsche Wirtschaft in Sommer 2024: Erholung kommt mühsam in Gang
[German Economy Summer 2024: Recovery gets off to a slow start]

Author

Listed:
  • Beckmann, Joscha
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Hoffmann, Timo
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Schröder, Christian
  • Sonnenberg, Nils

Abstract

Die deutsche Wirtschaft lässt die Rezession hinter sich. Ausweislich der Frühindikatoren wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt nach dem Anstieg im ersten Quartal weiter aufwärtsgerichtet bleiben. Im Verlauf des Jahres werden die steigenden real verfügbaren Einkommen und das anziehende Auslandsgeschäft die wirtschaftliche Aktivität stimulieren. Zudem wird die Wirkung der strafferen Geldpolitik auf die Expansionskräfte allmählich nachlassen. Eine hohe konjunkturelle Dynamik zeichnet sich indes nicht ab. So befinden sich das Geschäfts- und Konsumklima trotz Aufwärtstendenz weiterhin auf niedrigem Niveau. Zudem wird der Expansionsspielraum zusehends durch strukturelle Hemmnisse - darunter nicht zuletzt den demografischen Wandel - begrenzt. Alles in allem dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im laufenden Jahr um 0,2 Prozent (Frühjahrsprognose: 0,1 Prozent) und im Jahr 2025 um 1,1 Prozent (Frühjahrsprognose: 1,2 Prozent) steigen. Die Inflation hat sich zwar merklich abgeflacht und wird voraussichtlich im laufenden Jahr 2,2 Prozent und im kommenden Jahr 1,9 Prozent betragen, die Kernrate bleibt aber vorerst erhöht. Der Arbeitsmarkt zeigt sich weiterhin recht robust. Die Beschäftigung wird angesichts des demografischen Wandels allerdings nur noch leicht steigen. Die Arbeitslosenquote wird erst im Jahr 2025 wieder etwas auf dann 5,8 Prozent sinken. Das Finanzierungsdefizit des Staates dürfte von 2,4 Prozent in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahr 2023 auf 1,2 Prozent im Jahr 2025 zurückgehen. Die Schuldenquote wird bei rund 63 Prozent in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt verharren.

Suggested Citation

  • Beckmann, Joscha & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Schröder, Christian & Sonnenberg, Nils, 2024. "Deutsche Wirtschaft in Sommer 2024: Erholung kommt mühsam in Gang [German Economy Summer 2024: Recovery gets off to a slow start]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 115, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:300291
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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