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Determinants of agricultural land abandonment in post-soviet European Russia

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Listed:
  • Prishchepov, Alexander V.
  • Radeloff, Volker C.
  • Müller, Daniel
  • Dubinin, Maxim
  • Baumann, Matthias

Abstract

Socio-economic and institutional changes may accelerate land-use and land-cover change. Our goal was to explore the determinants of agricultural land abandonment within one agro-climatic and economic region of post-Soviet European Russia during the first decade of transition from a state-command to market-driven economy (between 1990 and 2000). We integrated maps of abandoned agricultural land derived from 30 m resolution Landsat TM/ETM+ images, environmental and socioeconomic variables and estimated logistic regressions. Results showed that post-Soviet agricultural land abandonment was significantly associated with lower average grain yields in the late 1980s, higher distance from the populated places, areas with low population densities, for isolated agricultural areas within the forest matrix and near the forest edges. Hierarchical partitioning showed that average grain yields in the late 1980s contributed the most in explaining the variability of agricultural land abandonment, followed by location characteristics of the land. While the spatial patterns correspond to the classic micro-economic theories of von Thünen and Ricardo, it was largely the macro-scale driving forces that fostered agricultural abandonment. In the light of continuum depopulation process in the studied region of European Russia, we expect continuing agricultural abandonment after the year 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Prishchepov, Alexander V. & Radeloff, Volker C. & Müller, Daniel & Dubinin, Maxim & Baumann, Matthias, 2011. "Determinants of agricultural land abandonment in post-soviet European Russia," IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? – Prospects for Trade and Growth 1, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iamo11:1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lerman, Zvi*Csaki, Csaba*Feder, Gershon, 2002. "Land policies and evolving farm structures in transition countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2794, The World Bank.
    2. Göran Therborn & K.C. Ho, 2009. "Introduction," City, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 53-62, March.
    3. Michael A Trueblood & Carlos Arnade, 2001. "Crop Yield Convergence: How Russia's Yield Performance Has Compared to Global Yield Leaders," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 43(2), pages 59-81, July.
    4. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    5. Holden, Ken & Klein, Philip A. & Lahiri, Kajal, 2001. "Introduction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 329-332.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lina Zhong & Wenwu Zhao & Zhengfeng Zhang & Xuening Fang, 2014. "Analysis of Multi-Scale Changes in Arable Land and Scale Effects of the Driving Factors in the Loess Areas in Northern Shaanxi, China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(4), pages 1-14, April.
    2. Zhonglei Yu & Lei Liu & Hua Zhang & Jinshe Liang, 2017. "Exploring the Factors Driving Seasonal Farmland Abandonment: A Case Study at the Regional Level in Hunan Province, Central China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(2), pages 1-18, January.
    3. Daquan Huang & Haoran Jin & Xingshuo Zhao & Shenghe Liu, 2014. "Factors Influencing the Conversion of Arable Land to Urban Use and Policy Implications in Beijing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. GebeltovaÌ , Z. & RÌŒezbovaÌ , H. & Pletichová, D., 2014. "Quantification of Changes in the State of the CR Agricultural Land Fund from 2001-2013," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 6(3), September.
    5. repec:zbw:espost:171339 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Belyaeva, Maria & Bokusheva, Raushan, 2017. "Will climate change benefit or hurt Russian grain production? A statistical evidence from a panel approach
      [Wird der Klimawandel der russischen Getreideproduktion nutzen oder schaden? Statistische
      ," IAMO Discussion Papers 161, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    7. Wang, Haoluan & Qiu, Feng, 2016. "Investigating the Spatial Effects of Agricultural Land Abandonment and Expansion," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235468, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    agricultural land abandonment; institutional change; land use change; spatial analysis; logistic regression; remote sensing; Russia;

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment

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