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How do self-fulfilling prophecies affect financial ratings? An experimental study

  • Celjo-Hörhager, Sanela
  • Niessen, Alexandra
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    In this experimental study we examine the impact of self-fulfilling prophecies on financial ratings. According to theoretical models like Kuhner (2001), rating agencies are more likely to reveal their private information if their rating can not become self-fulfilling from an ex-post point of view. In our experiment we use two settings in which ratings differ with respect to the degree of their self-fulfilling impact. In connection with a strong self-fulfilling impact of ratings we indeed observe that agencies are more likely to assign ratings which are not in line with their private information. Our results support theoretical findings of Kuhner (2001). However, the pathological equilibrium predicted by the theoretical model does not emerge in our experiment.

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/57721/1/702964646.pdf
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    Paper provided by University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR) in its series CFR Working Papers with number 06-13.

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    Date of creation: 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:0613
    Contact details of provider: Postal: 0221 / 470 5607
    Phone: 0221 / 470 5607
    Fax: 0221 / 470 5179
    Web page: http://cfr-cologne.de/english/version06/html/home.php
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    1. Joseph Henrich, 2001. "In Search of Homo Economicus: Behavioral Experiments in 15 Small-Scale Societies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 73-78, May.
    2. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521456821 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Robert Slonim & Alvin E. Roth, 1998. "Learning in High Stakes Ultimatum Games: An Experiment in the Slovak Republic," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 569-596, May.
    4. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
    5. Alvin E. Roth & V. Prasnikar & M. Okuno-Fujiwara & S. Zamir, 1998. "Bargaining and market behavior in Jerusalem, Liubljana, Pittsburgh and Tokyo: an experimental study," Levine's Working Paper Archive 344, David K. Levine.
    6. Cameron, Lisa A, 1999. "Raising the Stakes in the Ultimatum Game: Experimental Evidence from Indonesia," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 47-59, January.
    7. Christoph Kuhner, 2001. "Financial Rating Agencies: Are They Credible? – Insights Into The Reporting Incentives Of Rating Agencies In Times Of Enhanced Systemic Risk," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 53(1), pages 2-26, January.
    8. Guth, Werner & Schmittberger, Rolf & Schwarze, Bernd, 1982. "An experimental analysis of ultimatum bargaining," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 367-388, December.
    9. Carlson Mark & Hale Galina B, 2006. "Rating Agencies and Sovereign Debt Rollover," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-32, September.
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