Trade and soft power: Evidence from the China shock in Africa

Global powers increasingly use trade as a tool of geopolitical influence. But can trade also foster soft power? We provide novel evidence on this relationship by combining geo-referenced survey data from 22 African countries sourced from the Gallup World Poll with Chinese import data. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in manufacturing imports induced by the "China shock," we find that trade does not affect African citizens' attitudes towards China in the aggregate. However, the China shock is associated with higher perceived incomes and contributes to more favorable views of China in African countries with low technological intensity. Most notably, among citizens in democratic regimes, increased trade exposure is associated with more favorable perceptions of China, suggesting that political context mediates the effectiveness of trade-based soft power.