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Agent Orange: Trump, Soft Power, and Exports

Author

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  • Andrew K. Rose

Abstract

A country’s exports rise when its leadership is approved by other countries. I show this using a standard gravity model of bilateral exports, a panel of data from 2006 through 2017, and an annual Gallup survey which asks people in up to 157 countries whether they approve of the job performance of the leadership of China, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Holding other things constant, a country’s exports are higher if its leadership is approved by the importer; ‘soft power’ promotes exports. The soft power effect is statistically and economically significant; a one percent increase in leadership approval raises exports by around two-thirds of a percent. This effect is reasonably robust, and different measures of soft power deliver similar results. I conservatively estimate that the >20 percentage point decline in foreign approval of American leadership between 2016 (the final year of Obama’s presidency) and 2017 (Trump’s first year) lowered American exports by at least $3 billion.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew K. Rose, 2019. "Agent Orange: Trump, Soft Power, and Exports," NBER Working Papers 25439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25439
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    Cited by:

    1. Yu, Zhen & Li, Yuankun & Xie, Xubin, 2021. "Long-term trade impact of epidemic outbreaks: Is it V-shaped?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 16-40.
    2. Steven Yamarik & Mariya Mileva, 2023. "Cultural institutes: Networks and determinants," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 1119-1143, April.
    3. Weidner, Martin & Zylkin, Thomas, 2021. "Bias and consistency in three-way gravity models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. repec:osf:osfxxx:pu2yv_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Schulte, Erik V. & Kaplan, Lennart, 2025. "Trade and soft power: Evidence from the China shock in Africa," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 438, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    6. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2023. "Political ties and the yield curve," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    7. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    8. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2021. "Quid pro quo? Political ties and sovereign borrowing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Jianhong Qi & Kam Ki Tang & Da Yin & Yong Zhao, 2020. "Remaking China’s Global Image with the Belt and Road Initiative: Is the Jury Out?," Discussion Papers Series 635, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    10. Gerda Asmus-Bluhm & Vera Z. Eichenauer & Andreas Fuchs & Bradley Parks, 2025. "Does India Use Development Finance to Compete With China? A Subnational Analysis," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 69(2-3), pages 406-433, March.
    11. Mattia Longhi & Caterina Morelli, 2025. "The Role of Chinese Panda Ambassadors in International Trade," Working Papers 550, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    12. Laurent Didier, 2019. "Soft power and exporters behavior in international trade," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(4), pages 2595-2614.
    13. Lukas Wellner & Axel Dreher & Andreas Fuchs & Bradley C. Parks & Austin Strange, 2025. "Can Aid Buy Foreign Public Support? Evidence from Chinese Development Finance," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(2), pages 523-578.
    14. Plouffe, Michael, 2024. "The Public and the Assembly: Foreign Public Opinion and Voting in the UNGA," OSF Preprints pu2yv, Center for Open Science.
    15. Joachim Wagner, 2020. "Soft power and Germany's exports - First evidence from transaction data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 624-631.
    16. Eichenauer, Vera Z. & Fuchs, Andreas & Brückner, Lutz, 2021. "The effects of trade, aid, and investment on China's image in Latin America," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 483-498.
    17. Fuchs, Andreas & Kaplan, Lennart & Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Leue, Sebastian & Turbanisch, Felix & Wang, Feicheng, 2025. "Mask wars: Sourcing a critical medical product from China in times of COVID-19," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    18. Li, Shihan & Li, Si & Liu, Qingfu & Wei, Xiao, 2025. "Still water runs deep: Soft power in chinese prefectures and municipalities," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    19. Olivier Bertrand & Marie-Ann Betschinger, 2024. "Exploring the relationship between development aid and FDI from developed countries in developing countries: empirical insights from Japanese firm-level data," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 55(6), pages 782-795, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other

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