Do Chinese Exports Crowd-out African Goods? An Econometric Analysis by Country and Sector
Trade is one of the key channels through which Chinese economic growth affects the world economy and especially developing countries. African manufacturing sector is confined to few traditional sectors. Even if at times, and in some sectors, African exports have been favored by preferential treatments, Africa has proven to be particularly vulnerable to the competitive threat posed by China in third markets, including other African countries. With the intensification of economic relations, in fact, China has started flooding African markets with its low-cost manufactures, often at the expense of local producers. Furthermore, in Africa's main trade partners, namely United States and European Union, most Chinese goods are likely to crowd-out cheap African manufactures. We measure the indirect impact of China on African exports. Using disaggregated data for the period 1995–2005, we present significant evidence on the existence of a displacement effect at different levels: sector, product, region and market.C'est à travers la croissance économique chinoise que se manifeste l'un des plus grands impacts de la chine sur l’économie mondiale et plus particulièrement sur celle des pays en développement. Le secteur manufacturier africain se limite à quelques productions traditionnelles. Même si, à certaines périodes et dans certains secteurs, les exportations africaines ont bénéficié de traitements préférentiels, l’Afrique s’est avérée particulièrement vulnérable à la menace compétitive exercée par la Chine sur les marchés tiers, y compris sur d’autres marchés africains. En effet, avec l’intensification des relations économiques, la Chine a commencé à inonder les marchés africains avec des produits manufacturés à bas coûts, souvent au détriment des producteurs locaux. De surcroît, aux Etats Unis et en Europe, principaux partenaires des pays africains, les produits chinois sont aussi susceptibles d’évincer des produits manufacturés africains bon marché. Nous mesurons l’impact indirect de la concurrence chinoise sur les exportations africaines. En utilisant des données désagrégées sur la période 1995–2005, nous mettons en évidence l’effet de déplacement au niveau des secteurs, des produits, des régions et des marchés.European Journal of Development Research (2009) 21, 506–530. doi:10.1057/ejdr.2009.20
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Volume (Year): 21 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
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