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Measuring the Competitive Threat from China

  • Jenkins, Rhys
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    In recent years there has been a growing literature that analyses the threat which Chinese exports pose to the exports of other developing countries. The paper provides a critique of the standard measures of export similarity which have been used to estimate the threat from China in these studies. Two alternative indices, the static and the dynamic index of competitive threat, are developed and estimated for 18 developing countries and compared with estimates for the standard measures. It is shown that the latter tend to underestimate the extent to which countries are threatened by China. They also distort both the rankings of countries according to the extent to which they face competition from China and the direction of change in the competitive threat over time.

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    File URL: http://www.wider.unu.edu/stc/repec/pdfs/rp2008/rp2008-11.pdf
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    Paper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Paper Series with number RP2008/11.

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    Length: 24 pages
    Date of creation: 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-11
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    1. Jorge Blázquez-Lidoy & Javier Rodríguez & Javier Santiso, 2006. "Angel or Devil? China's Trade Impact on Latin American Emerging Markets," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 252, OECD Publishing.
    2. L. Alan Winters & Shahid Yusuf, 2007. "Dancing with the Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6632, November.
    3. Mesquita Moreira, Mauricio, 2007. "Fear of China: Is There a Future for Manufacturing in Latin America?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 355-376, March.
    4. Lall, Sanjaya & Albaladejo, Manuel, 2004. "China's Competitive Performance: A Threat to East Asian Manufactured Exports?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1441-1466, September.
    5. Thomas Vollrath, 1991. "A theoretical evaluation of alternative trade intensity measures of revealed comparative advantage," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 265-280, June.
    6. Sanjaya Lall (QEH) and John Weiss, . "China's Competitive Threat to Latin America: An Analysis for 1990-2002," QEH Working Papers qehwps120, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
    7. Finger, J Michael, 1981. "Policy Research," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1270-71, December.
    8. Shafaeddin, S. M., 2004. "Is China's accession to WTO threatening exports of developing countries?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 109-144, January.
    9. Jenkins, Rhys & Edwards, Chris, 2006. "The economic impacts of China and India on sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and prospects," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 207-225, April.
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