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Measuring the Competitive Threat from China

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  • Rhys Jenkins

Abstract

In recent years there has been a growing literature that analyses the threat which Chinese exports pose to the exports of other developing countries. The paper provides a critique of the standard measures of export similarity which have been used to estimate the threat from China in these studies. Two alternative indices, the static and the dynamic index of competitive threat, are developed and estimated for 18 developing countries and compared with estimates for the standard measures. It is shown that the latter tend to underestimate the extent to which countries are threatened by China.

Suggested Citation

  • Rhys Jenkins, 2008. "Measuring the Competitive Threat from China," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-11, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-11
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    File URL: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/rp2008-11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Lall, Sanjaya & Albaladejo, Manuel, 2004. "China's Competitive Performance: A Threat to East Asian Manufactured Exports?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1441-1466, September.
    7. Mr. Allan Timmermann, 2006. "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 2006/059, International Monetary Fund.
    8. J.M. Finger, 2002. "Policy Research," Chapters, in: Institutions and Trade Policy, chapter 18, pages 275-278, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Jenkins, Rhys & Edwards, Chris, 2006. "The economic impacts of China and India on sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and prospects," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 207-225, April.
    10. L. Alan Winters & Shahid Yusuf, 2007. "Dancing with the Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6632.
    11. Thomas Vollrath, 1991. "A theoretical evaluation of alternative trade intensity measures of revealed comparative advantage," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 127(2), pages 265-280, June.
    12. Shafaeddin, S. M., 2004. "Is China's accession to WTO threatening exports of developing countries?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 109-144, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark Thissen & Frank van Oort & Philip McCann & Raquel Ortega-Argilés & Trond Husby, 2020. "The Implications of Brexit for UK and EU Regional Competitiveness," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 96(5), pages 397-421, October.
    2. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2014. "Trade Balance, Foreign Exchange and Macroeconomic Impacts: An Empirical Assessment for China and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 59539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Aug 2014.
    3. Martijn J. Burger & Bert van der Knaap & Ronald S. Wall, 2013. "Revealed competition for greenfield investments between European regions," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 619-648, July.
    4. Dumitrescu Iulia Monica & Crespo Nuno & Simões Nadia, 2018. "Trade Competition Measurement and the Choice of Measurement Indexes," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 63(3), pages 3-14, December.
    5. Dic Lo, 2016. "Developing or Under-developing? Implications of China’s ‘Going out’ for Late Development," Working Papers 198, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    6. Dic Lo, 2010. "China and World Development beyond the Crisis," Working Papers 167, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    7. Kyoko Hirose & Yushi Yoshida, 2012. "Intra-National Regional Heterogeneity in International Trade: Foreign Growth on Exports and Production of Domestic Regions," Discussion Papers 54, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics.
    8. Rhys Jenkins, 2008. "China's Global Growth and Latin American Exports," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-104, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Sandrina Moreira & Nadia Simoes & Nuno Crespo, 2017. "A contribution to a multidimensional analysis of trade competition," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2301-2326, October.
    10. Rhys Jenkins, 2008. "Measuring the Competitive Threat from China for other Southern Exporters," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(10), pages 1351-1366, October.
    11. Edwards, Lawrence & Jenkins, Rhys, 2014. "The margins of export competition: A new approach to evaluating the impact of China on South African exports to Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 132-150.
    12. Nuno Crespo & Nádia Simões & José Duarte, 2013. "Competition in tourism arrivals – A multidimensional index of geographical structural similarity," Working Papers Series 2 13-05, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    13. Giorgia Giovannetti & Marco Sanfilippo, 2009. "Do Chinese Exports Crowd-out African Goods? An Econometric Analysis by Country and Sector," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 21(4), pages 506-530, September.
    14. Lopes, Vania & Simoes, Nadia & Crespo, Nuno, 2014. "A methodological contribution for measuring trade competition," MPRA Paper 58042, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    Competition; Index numbers (Economics); International trade;
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