Fear of China: Is There a Future for Manufacturing in Latin America?
China’s emergence has raised pointed questions about the future of manufacturing in Latin America. Once saw as its economic future, the viability of this activity in the region has long been challenged by traditional trade theory and, in practical terms, by at least three generations of Asian Tigers. China and its “unlimited supply of labor”, rapid productivity growth, scale, and extremely interventionist state has brought the practical challenge to unprecedented levels. This paper, using mainly descriptive production and trade statistics, looks at the nature of this challenge and its implications. It begins by dealing with a central issue: Does manufacturing still matter for Latin America’s development? It argues that even though there are other options that should be exploited, the region cannot afford to completely turn its back to a well-proven road to development. It then moves on to examine the scope and nature of the Chinese challenge. It shows that endowments, productivity, scale and the government role, all work together to make China a formidable competitor. The importance of this challenge is confirmed by an analysis of the trade data, which suggests a small impact so far, but a trend that should make Latin American policy makers uncomfortable in their seats. The paper concludes by discussing, in general terms, the (difficult) policy options available.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1995.
"Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth,"
517a, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
- Tybout, James R. & Westbrook, M. Daniel, 1995. "Trade liberalization and the dimensions of efficiency change in Mexican manufacturing industries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 53-78, August.
- Murphy, Kevin M. & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1989.
"Industrialization and the Big Push,"
3606235, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- repec:idb:brikps:22958 is not listed on IDEAS
- Jean-Philippe Stijns, 2003. "An Empirical Test of the Dutch Disease Hypothesis using a Gravity Model of Trade," International Trade 0305001, EconWPA.
- Werner Antweiler & Daniel Trefler, 2002.
"Increasing Returns and All That: A View from Trade,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 93-119, March.
- Werner Antweiler & Daniel Trefler, 2000. "Increasing Returns and All That: A View From Trade," NBER Working Papers 7941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nolan, Peter & Zhang, Jin, 2002. "The Challenge of Globalization for Large Chinese Firms," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2089-2107, December.
- Mauricio Mesquita Moreira & Juan S. Blyde, 2006. "Chile's Integration Strategy: Is There Room for Improvement?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9391, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Finger, J M & Kreinin, M E, 1979. "A Measure of 'Export Similarity' and Its Possible Uses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(356), pages 905-12, December.
- José Ernesto López Córdova & Mauricio Mesquita Moreira, 2003. "Regional Integration and Productivity: The Experiences of Brazil and Mexico," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 23438, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Thorvaldur Gylfason, 2001. "Natural Resources and Economic Growth: What Is the Connection?," CESifo Working Paper Series 530, CESifo Group Munich.
- Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2003.
"China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
789, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ramana Ramaswamy & Bob Rowthorn, 1997. "Deindustrialization; Causes and Implications," IMF Working Papers 97/42, International Monetary Fund.
- Theodore H. Moran, 2001.
"Parental Supervision: The New Paradigm for Foreign Direct Investment and Development,"
Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics,
Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa64.
- Theodore H. Moran, 2001. "Parental Supervision: The New Paradigm for Foreign Direct Investment and Development," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa64, January.
- Alwyn Young, 2003. "Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1220-1261, December.
- Lederman, Daniel & Maloney, William F., 2003. "Trade structure and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3025, The World Bank.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989.
"A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction,"
UWO Department of Economics Working Papers
8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," NBER Working Papers 3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1990. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," DELTA Working Papers 90-12, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2002.
"Tropics, Germs, and Crops: How Endowments Influence Economic Development,"
15, Center for Global Development.
- Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 2003. "Tropics, germs, and crops: how endowments influence economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 3-39, January.
- William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2002. "Tropics, Germs, and Crops: How Endowments Influence Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 9106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1994.
"Technology and Trade,"
NBER Working Papers
4926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rodrik, Dani, 2004.
"Industrial Policy for the Twenty-First Century,"
Working Paper Series
rwp04-047, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Sanjaya Lall and Manuel Albaladejo (QEH), .
"China’s Competitive Performance: A Threat To East Asian Manufactured Exports?,"
QEH Working Papers
qehwps110, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
- Lall, Sanjaya & Albaladejo, Manuel, 2004. "China's Competitive Performance: A Threat to East Asian Manufactured Exports?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1441-1466, September.
- Thorvaldur Gylfason & Gylfi Zoega, 2002. "Inequality and Economic Growth: Do Natural Resources Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 712, CESifo Group Munich.
- Peter Nolan & Jin Zhang, 2002. "The Challenge Of Globalization For Large Chinese Firms," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 162, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
- repec:idb:brikps:8551 is not listed on IDEAS
- Sanjaya Lall, 2000. "The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1985-98," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 337-369.
- Jefferson, Gary H. & Rawski, Thomas G. & Li, Wang & Yuxin, Zheng, 2000. "Ownership, Productivity Change, and Financial Performance in Chinese Industry," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 786-813, December.
- Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodrik, Dani, 2002.
"Economic Development as Self-Discovery,"
Working Paper Series
rwp02-023, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Jonathan Isham & Michael Woolcock & Lant Pritchett & Gwen Busby, 2003.
"The Varieties of Resource Experience: How Natural Resource Export Structures Affect the Political Economy of Economic Growth,"
Middlebury College Working Paper Series
0308, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
- Lant Pritchett & Michael Woolcock & Gwen Busby & Jonathan Isham, 2004. "The Varieties of Resource Experience: How Natural Resource Export Structures Affect the Political Economy of Economic Growth," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0308r, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
- Kui-Wai Li, 2003.
"China's Capital and Productivity Measurement Using Financial Resources,"
851, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
- Kui-Wai Li, 2004. "China's Capital and Productivity Measurement Using Financial Resources," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm338, Yale School of Management.
- Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
- Osmel Manzano & Roberto Rigobon, 2001. "Resource Curse or Debt Overhang?," NBER Working Papers 8390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:35:y:2007:i:3:p:355-376. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.