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Measuring the Competitive Threat from China for other Southern Exporters

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  • Rhys Jenkins

Abstract

In recent years there has been a growing literature which analyses the threat which Chinese exports pose to the exports of other developing countries. This paper provides a critique of the standard measures of export similarity which have been used to estimate the threat from China in these studies. Two alternative indices, the Static and the Dynamic Index of Competitive Threat, are developed and estimated for 18 developing countries and compared with estimates for the standard measures. It is shown that the latter tend to underestimate the extent to which countries are threatened by China. They also distort both the rankings of countries according to the extent to which they face competition from China and the direction of change in the competitive threat over time. Copyright 2008 United Nations University. Journal compilation 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Rhys Jenkins, 2008. "Measuring the Competitive Threat from China for other Southern Exporters," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(10), pages 1351-1366, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:31:y:2008:i:10:p:1351-1366
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mesquita Moreira, Mauricio, 2007. "Fear of China: Is There a Future for Manufacturing in Latin America?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 355-376, March.
    2. Jorge Blázquez-Lidoy & Javier Rodríguez & Javier Santiso, 2006. "Angel or Devil? China's Trade Impact on Latin American Emerging Markets," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 252, OECD Publishing.
    3. Jenkins, Rhys & Edwards, Chris, 2006. "The economic impacts of China and India on sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and prospects," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 207-225, April.
    4. Jenkins, Rhys, 2008. "Measuring the Competitive Threat from China," WIDER Working Paper Series 011, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Mesquita Moreira, Mauricio, 2007. "Fear of China: Is There a Future for Manufacturing in Latin America?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 355-376, March.
    6. Harry G. Broadman, 2007. "Africa's Silk Road : China and India's New Economic Frontier," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7186.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martijn J. Burger & Bert van der Knaap & Ronald S. Wall, 2013. "Revealed competition for greenfield investments between European regions," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 619-648, July.
    2. repec:bla:devpol:v:35:y:2017:i:6:p:797-821 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:bla:worlde:v:40:y:2017:i:10:p:2301-2326 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Edwards, Lawrence & Jenkins, Rhys, 2014. "The margins of export competition: A new approach to evaluating the impact of China on South African exports to Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 132-150.
    5. Larry D. Qiu & Chaoqun Zhan, 2016. "Special Section: China's Growing Trade and its Role to the World Economy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 45-71, February.
    6. Nuno Crespo & Nádia Simões & José Duarte, 2013. "Competition in tourism arrivals – A multidimensional index of geographical structural similarity," Working Papers Series 2 13-05, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    7. Dic Lo, 2016. "Developing or Under-developing? Implications of China’s ‘Going out’ for Late Development," Working Papers 198, Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London, UK.
    8. Lopes, Vania & Simoes, Nadia & Crespo, Nuno, 2014. "A methodological contribution for measuring trade competition," MPRA Paper 58042, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2014. "Trade Balance, Foreign Exchange and Macroeconomic Impacts: An Empirical Assessment for China and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 59539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Aug 2014.

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