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Measuring the Competitive Threat from China for other Southern Exporters


  • Rhys Jenkins


In recent years there has been a growing literature which analyses the threat which Chinese exports pose to the exports of other developing countries. This paper provides a critique of the standard measures of export similarity which have been used to estimate the threat from China in these studies. Two alternative indices, the Static and the Dynamic Index of Competitive Threat, are developed and estimated for 18 developing countries and compared with estimates for the standard measures. It is shown that the latter tend to underestimate the extent to which countries are threatened by China. They also distort both the rankings of countries according to the extent to which they face competition from China and the direction of change in the competitive threat over time. Copyright 2008 United Nations University. Journal compilation 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Rhys Jenkins, 2008. "Measuring the Competitive Threat from China for other Southern Exporters," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(10), pages 1351-1366, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:31:y:2008:i:10:p:1351-1366

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Lall, Sanjaya & Albaladejo, Manuel, 2004. "China's Competitive Performance: A Threat to East Asian Manufactured Exports?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1441-1466, September.
    2. Elena Ianchovichina & Will Martin, 2004. "Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(1), pages 3-27.
    3. John Gilbert & Thomas Wahl, 2002. "Applied General Equilibrium Assessments of Trade Libereralisation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 697-731, May.
    4. Luca Benedictis & Lucia Tajoli, 2007. "Economic integration and similarity in trade structures," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 117-137, April.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2004. "The Impact of China on the Exports of Other Asian Countries," NBER Working Papers 10768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sanjaya Lall & John Weiss & Hiroshi Oikawa, 2005. "China's Competitive Threat to Latin America: An Analysis for 1990-2002," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 163-194.
    7. Harrison, Ann, 1996. "Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 419-447, March.
    8. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    9. Shafaeddin, S. M., 2004. "Is China's accession to WTO threatening exports of developing countries?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 109-144, January.
    10. Jorge Blázquez-Lidoy & Javier Rodríguez & Javier Santiso, 2006. "Angel or Devil? China's Trade Impact on Latin American Emerging Markets," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 252, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Larry D. Qiu & Chaoqun Zhan, 2016. "Special Section: China's Growing Trade and its Role to the World Economy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(1), pages 45-71, February.
    2. Martijn J. Burger & Bert van der Knaap & Ronald S. Wall, 2013. "Revealed competition for greenfield investments between European regions," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 619-648, July.
    3. Lopes, Vania & Simoes, Nadia & Crespo, Nuno, 2014. "A methodological contribution for measuring trade competition," MPRA Paper 58042, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:bla:devpol:v:35:y:2017:i:6:p:797-821 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Chan, Tze-Haw, 2014. "Trade Balance, Foreign Exchange and Macroeconomic Impacts: An Empirical Assessment for China and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 59539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Aug 2014.
    6. Nuno Crespo & Nádia Simões & José Duarte, 2013. "Competition in tourism arrivals – A multidimensional index of geographical structural similarity," Working Papers Series 2 13-05, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    7. Dic Lo, 2016. "Developing or Under-developing? Implications of China’s ‘Going out’ for Late Development," Working Papers 198, Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London, UK.
    8. Edwards, Lawrence & Jenkins, Rhys, 2014. "The margins of export competition: A new approach to evaluating the impact of China on South African exports to Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 132-150.

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