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Predicting fixed effects in panel probit models

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  • Kunz, J.S.;
  • Staub, K.E.;
  • Winkelmann, R.;

Abstract

We present a method to estimate and predict fixed effects in a panel probit model when N is large and T is small, and when there is a high proportion of individual units without variation in the binary response. Our approach builds on a bias-reduction method originally developed by Kosmidis and Firth (2009) for cross-section data. In contrast to other estimators, our approach ensures that predicted fixed effects are finite in all cases. Results from a simulation study document favorable properties in terms of bias and mean squared error. The estimator is applied to predict period-specific fixed effects for the extensive margin of health care utilization (any visit to a doctor during the previous three months), using German data for 2000-2014. We find a negative correlation between fixed effects and observed characteristics. Although there is some within-individual variation in fixed effects over sub-periods, the between-variation is four times as large.

Suggested Citation

  • Kunz, J.S.; & Staub, K.E.; & Winkelmann, R.;, 2018. "Predicting fixed effects in panel probit models," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 18/23, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
  • Handle: RePEc:yor:hectdg:18/23
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    Cited by:

    1. Rainer Winkelmann & Lin Xu, 2022. "Testing the binomial fixed effects logit model, with an application to female labour supply," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 679-708, February.
    2. Francesco Bartolucci & Claudia Pigini & Francesco Valentini, 2023. "Conditional inference and bias reduction for partial effects estimation of fixed-effects logit models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2257-2290, May.
    3. Buchmueller, Thomas C. & Cheng, Terence C. & Pham, Ngoc T.A. & Staub, Kevin E., 2021. "The effect of income-based mandates on the demand for private hospital insurance and its dynamics," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Perfect prediction; Bias reduction; modified score function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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