Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate In Brazil Estimation And Policy Implications
This paper examines the determinants of the real effective exchange rate (REER) in Brazil, from 1994 to 2003. Building on a standard theoretical model and based on the Johansen cointegration estimation, the main finding is that much of the long-run behavior of the REER can be explained by relative productivity differentials, real commodity prices, government expenditures on tradables and non-tradables, trade openness and real interest differentials. On the basis of these fundamentals, the level of misalignment of the Real was found to be surprisingly modest during the Real Plan (1994-1998). As of end 2003, the Real was found to be slightly appreciated with respect to the estimated equilibrium level, although the extent of the misalignment appears to be small as well. The paper also discusses the implications of these findings with regard to trade competitiveness.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alberola, Enrique & Lopez, Humberto & Serven, Luis, 2004.
"Tango with the Gringo: the hard peg and real misalignment in Argentina,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3322, The World Bank.
- Enrique Alberola & Humberto López & Luis Servén, 2004. "Tango with the gringo: the hard peg and real misalign ment in Argentina," Working Papers 0405, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Bacha, Edmar, 1997. "Plano Real: uma segunda avaliação," Coediciones, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1541.
- Claudio A Paiva, 2003. "Trade Elasticities and Market Expectations in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 03/140, International Monetary Fund.
- Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Euro, Dollar, “Ins,” “Outs,” and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
- Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society.
- Michael R. Pakko & Patricia S. Pollard, 2003. "Burgernomics: a big MacT guide to purchasing power parity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 9-28.
- Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The Russian Default and the Contagion to Brazil," IMF Working Papers 00/160, International Monetary Fund.
- Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The Russian default and the contagion to Brazil," Textos para discussão 420, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Willy W. Hoffmaister & Carlos I. Medeiros & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1997. "Cyclical Fluctuations in Brazil's Real Exchange Rate; The Role of Domestic and External Factors," IMF Working Papers 97/128, International Monetary Fund.
- Ronald Macdonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2004. "Estimation Of The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate For South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(2), pages 282-304, 06.
- Ronald MacDonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 03/44, International Monetary Fund.
- Ratna Sahay & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Paul Cashin, 2002. "Keynes, Cocoa, and Copper; In Search of Commodity Currencies," IMF Working Papers 02/223, International Monetary Fund. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0502013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.