IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2006-074.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of Venezuela’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Juan Zalduendo

Abstract

The Venezuelan Bolivar is pegged to the U.S. dollar and supported by foreign exchange restrictions. To assess the appropriateness of the peg during the current period of high oil export earnings and the likely consequences of a liberalization, this paper attempts to disentangle the effects of oil prices from other factors underlying the equilibrium real exchange rate, and examines the role of foreign exchange controls by extending the application of a vector error correction (VEC) model to parallel market exchange rates. Several findings are worth noting. First, oil prices have indeed played a significant role in determining a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate path. Second, oil prices are not the only important determinant of the real effective exchange rate: declining productivity is also a key factor. Third, appreciation pressures are rising. Finally, the speed of convergence of a VEC model using parallel rather than official rates is higher, suggesting that the government has been able to maintain sharp deviations between the official and equilibrium rates because of Venezuela's oil dependency and the concentration of oil income in government hands.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Juan Zalduendo, 2006. "Determinants of Venezuela’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 2006/074, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/074
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=19034
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paruolo, Paolo, 2002. "Asymptotic Inference On The Moving Average Impact Matrix In Cointegrated I (2) Var Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 673-690, June.
    2. Mr. Ronald MacDonald & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2003/044, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Mr. Paul Cashin, 2002. "Keynes, Cocoa, and Copper: In Search of Commodity Currencies," IMF Working Papers 2002/223, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cécile & Mignon, Valérie, 2015. "On the impact of volatility on the real exchange rate – terms of trade nexus: Revisiting commodity currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 110-127.
    2. Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2017. "Does the crude oil price influence the exchange rates of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries differently? A wavelet coherence analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 536-547.
    3. Omotosho, Babatunde S. & Wambai, Murjanatu, 2012. "Is the Naira-US Dollar Real Exchange Rate Misaligned?," MPRA Paper 98354, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Tunaer Vural, Burçak Müge, 2019. "Determinants of Turkish real effective exchange rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 151-158.
    5. Mustafa Kocoglu & Phouphet Kyophilavong & Ashar Awan & So Young Lim, 2023. "Time-varying causality between oil price and exchange rate in five ASEAN economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1007-1031, April.
    6. Hasanov, Fakhri, 2009. "Analyzing price level in a booming economy: the case of Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 29555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Kalamova, Margarita Manolova, 2007. "Are there oil currencies? The real exchange rate of oil exporting countries," Working Paper Series 839, European Central Bank.
    8. Magali Dauvin, 2013. "Energy prices and the real exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-33, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    9. Wang, Lu & Ruan, Hang & Hong, Yanran & Luo, Keyu, 2023. "Detecting the hidden asymmetric relationship between crude oil and the US dollar: A novel neural Granger causality method," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Fan, Ying & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Spillover effect of US dollar exchange rate on oil prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 973-991.
    11. Hayat, Aziz & Ganiev, Bahodir & Tang, Xueli, 2013. "Expectations of future income and real exchange rate movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1274-1285.
    12. Shang, Jin & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2021. "Do crude oil prices and the sentiment index influence foreign exchange rates differently in oil-importing and oil-exporting countries? A dynamic connectedness analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Chen, Hongtao & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhu, Yingming, 2016. "Oil price shocks and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1036-1048.
    14. Iikka Korhonen & Tuuli Juurikkala, 2009. "Equilibrium exchange rates in oil-exporting countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(1), pages 71-79, January.
    15. Adibeh Savari & Hassan Farazmand & Mehdi Basirat, 2014. "The Effect of Oil Income on Real Exchange Rate in Iranian Economy," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(11), pages 1564-1572, November.
    16. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2013. "Exchange rate misalignment and inflation rate persistence: Evidence from Latin American countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 202-218.
    17. Mr. Claudio A Paiva, 2006. "External Adjustment and Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2006/221, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Mr. Jemma Dridi & Maher Hasan, 2008. "The Impact of Oil-Related Income on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria," IMF Working Papers 2008/196, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Pazouki, Azadeh & Zhu, Xiaoxian, 2022. "The dynamic impact among oil dependence volatility, the quality of political institutions, and government spending," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    20. Alssadek, Marwan & Benhin, James, 2021. "Oil boom, exchange rate and sectoral output: An empirical analysis of Dutch disease in oil-rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yasser Abdih & Charalambos Tsangarides, 2010. "FEER for the CFA franc," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(16), pages 2009-2029.
    2. Eva Gutierrez, 2007. "Export Performance and External Competitiveness in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 5(2), pages 203-224.
    3. Stokke, Hildegunn E., 2008. "Resource boom, productivity growth and real exchange rate dynamics -- A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 148-160, January.
    4. Miss Eva Gutierrez, 2006. "Export Performance and External Competitiveness in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia," IMF Working Papers 2006/261, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Thierry Buchs, 2005. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate In Brazil Estimation And Policy Implications," International Trade 0502013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Todd Schneider & Nabil Ben Ltaifa & Mr. Faisal Ahmed & Mr. Saade Chami, 2007. "Yemen: Exchange Rate Policy in the Face of Dwindling Oil Exports," IMF Working Papers 2007/005, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Isabell Koske, 2008. "Assessing the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Malaysian Ringgit: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 179-208, June.
    8. Mr. Martin Petri & Tahsin Saadi Sedik, 2006. "To Smooth or Not to Smooth—The Impact of Grants and Remittances on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Jordan," IMF Working Papers 2006/257, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mr. Johan Mathisen, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Malawi," IMF Working Papers 2003/104, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2007. "Volatility, Financial Development and the Natural Resource Curse," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/36, European University Institute.
    11. Mr. Juan Zalduendo, 2008. "Bivariate Assessments of Real Exchange Rates Using PPP Data," IMF Working Papers 2008/153, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Juselius, Katarina & MacDonald, Ronald, 2004. "International parity relationships between the USA and Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 17-34, January.
    13. Elizabeth Bucacos, 2008. "Real (effective) exchange rate in Uruguay: a periodic cointegration approach," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 265-289, julio-sep.
    14. Hilde C Bjørnland & Håvard Hungnes, 2008. "The Commodity Currency Puzzle," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 7-30, May.
    15. Fakhri Hasanov, 2010. "The Impact of Real Oil Price on Real Effective Exchange Rate: The Case of Azerbaijan," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1041, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Andrea Salazar-Díaz & Aarón Levi Garavito-Acosta & Sergio Restrepo Ángel & Leidy Viviana Arcila-Agudelo, 2023. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Colombia: Thousands of VEC Models Approach," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 99, pages 33-78, July-Dece.
    17. Wright, Nicholas Anthony, 2013. "Examining measures of the equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Macroeconomic Balance and the Natural Real Exchange Rate Approaches," MPRA Paper 61170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2015. "The Determinants of Long-run Real Exchange Rate in South Africa: A Fundamental Equilibrium Approach," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 319-336, September.
    19. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Local Power Of Likelihood Ratio Tests For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 50-78, February.
    20. Sven Schreiber, 2019. "The estimation uncertainty of permanent-transitory decompositions in co-integrated systems," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 279-300, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/074. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.