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Inter-pattern speculation: beyond minority, majority and $-games

Author

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  • Damien Challet

    (Oxford University)

Abstract

A new model of financial market is proposed, based on the sequential and inter-temporal nature of trader-trader interaction. In this pattern- based speculation model, the traders open and close their positions explicitely. Information ecology can be precisely characterised, and is strikingly similar to that of the Minority Game. Naive and sophisticated agents are shown to give rise to very different phenomenology.

Suggested Citation

  • Damien Challet, 2005. "Inter-pattern speculation: beyond minority, majority and $-games," Finance 0503006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0503006
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Damien Challet & Tobias Galla, 2005. "Price return autocorrelation and predictability in agent-based models of financial markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(6), pages 569-576.
    2. Rothenstein, R & Pawelzik, K, 2003. "Evolution and anti-evolution in a minimal stock market model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 326(3), pages 534-543.
    3. Challet, Damien & Marsili, M & Ottino, Gabriele, 2004. "Shedding light on El Farol," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 332(C), pages 469-482.
    4. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
    5. Challet, Damien & Marsili, Matteo & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2000. "Modeling market mechanism with minority game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 276(1), pages 284-315.
    6. Challet, Damien, 2004. "Minority mechanisms in models of agents learning collectively a resource level," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 24-29.
    7. D. Challet & A. Chessa & M. Marsili & Y-C. Zhang, 2001. "From Minority Games to real markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 168-176.
    8. J. Doyne Farmer, 2002. "Market force, ecology and evolution," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 895-953, November.
    9. Farmer, J. Doyne & Joshi, Shareen, 2002. "The price dynamics of common trading strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-171, October.
    10. R. Rothenstein & K. Pawelzik, 2002. "Evolution and anti-evolution in a minimal stock market model," Papers nlin/0211010, arXiv.org, revised May 2003.
    11. Marsili, Matteo, 2001. "Market mechanism and expectations in minority and majority games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 93-103.
    12. Slanina, František & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2001. "Dynamical spin-glass-like behavior in an evolutionary game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 290-300.
    13. Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 1999. "Toward a theory of marginally efficient markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 269(1), pages 30-44.
    14. Matteo Marsili, 2002. "Dissecting financial markets: Sectors and states," Papers cond-mat/0207156, arXiv.org.
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    16. Challet, D. & Zhang, Y.-C., 1997. "Emergence of cooperation and organization in an evolutionary game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 407-418.
    17. Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2001. "Why Financial Markets Will Remain Marginally Inefficient?," Papers cond-mat/0105373, arXiv.org.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Takero Ibuki & Jun-ichi Inoue, 2011. "Response of double-auction markets to instantaneous Selling–Buying signals with stochastic Bid–Ask spread," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 6(2), pages 93-120, November.
    2. Karol Wawrzyniak & Wojciech Wislicki, 2011. "Mesoscopic approach to minority games in herd regime," Papers 1112.0210, arXiv.org.
    3. Shubham Agarwal & Diptesh Ghosh & Anindya S. Chakrabarti, 2016. "Self-organization in a distributed coordination game through heuristic rules," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 89(12), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Kei Katahira & Yu Chen, 2019. "Heterogeneous wealth distribution, round-trip trading and the emergence of volatility clustering in Speculation Game," Papers 1909.03185, arXiv.org.
    5. Li-Xin Zhong & Wen-Juan Xu & Ping Huang & Chen-Yang Zhong & Tian Qiu, 2013. "Self-organization and phase transition in financial markets with multiple choices," Papers 1312.0690, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2014.
    6. Li-Xin Zhong & Wen-Juan Xu & Fei Ren & Yong-Dong Shi, 2012. "Coupled effects of market impact and asymmetric sensitivity in financial markets," Papers 1209.3399, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2013.
    7. Zhong, Li-Xin & Xu, Wen-Juan & Ren, Fei & Shi, Yong-Dong, 2013. "Coupled effects of market impact and asymmetric sensitivity in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(9), pages 2139-2149.
    8. B. A. Mello & V. M.C.S. Souza & D. O. Cajueiro & R. F.S. Andrade, 2010. "Network evolution based on minority game with herding behavior," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 76(1), pages 147-156, July.
    9. Kei Katahira & Yu Chen & Gaku Hashimoto & Hiroshi Okuda, 2019. "Development of an agent-based speculation game for higher reproducibility of financial stylized facts," Papers 1902.02040, arXiv.org.
    10. repec:eee:phsmap:v:524:y:2019:i:c:p:503-518 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ren, F. & Zhang, Y.C., 2008. "Trading model with pair pattern strategies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(22), pages 5523-5534.
    12. Luca Grilli & Angelo Sfrecola, 2005. "Neural Networks to Predict Financial Time Series in a Minority Game Context," Quaderni DSEMS 14-2005, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
    13. Ted Theodosopoulos & Ming Yuen, 2006. "Imbalance attractors for a strategic model of market microstructure," Papers math/0605421, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial market; agent-based modelling; minority game; majority game; $-game; information; market efficiency;

    JEL classification:

    • G - Financial Economics

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