Market mechanism and expectations in minority and majority games
We present a derivation of the minority game from a market mechanism. This shows that the minority nature of the interaction crucially depends on the expectation model of agents. The same market mechanism with different expectations leads indeed to the majority game. We study in detail the minority game without information and clarify the role of initial conditions on the dynamics. The stronger and the more heterogeneous the prior beliefs which agents hold on the best choice, the more efficient is the final stationary state. We also review the effect of market impact. Finally we discuss mixed minority–majority games in order to address the issue of whether the dynamics of the market satisfies the expectations of agents. We find that in both a minority and a majority game expectations are self-fulfilled.
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Volume (Year): 299 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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- D. Challet & A. Chessa & M. Marsili & Y-C. Zhang, 2001.
"From Minority Games to real markets,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 168-176.
- Damien Challet & Matteo Marsili & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2001.
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- Challet, Damien & Marsili, Matteo & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2001. "Stylized facts of financial markets and market crashes in Minority Games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 294(3), pages 514-524.
- J. Berg & M. Marsili & A. Rustichini & R. Zecchina, 2001.
"Statistical mechanics of asset markets with private information,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 203-211.
- Johannes Berg & Matteo Marsili & Aldo Rustichini & Riccardo Zecchina, 2001. "Statistical mechanics of asset markets with private information," Papers cond-mat/0101351, arXiv.org.
- Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Challet, D. & Zhang, Y.-C., 1997. "Emergence of cooperation and organization in an evolutionary game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 246(3), pages 407-418.
- Colin Camerer & Teck-Hua Ho, 1999. "Experience-weighted Attraction Learning in Normal Form Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 827-874, July.
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