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Stylized facts of financial markets and market crashes in Minority Games

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  • Damien Challet
  • Matteo Marsili
  • Yi-Cheng Zhang

Abstract

We present and study a Minority Game based model of a financial market where adaptive agents -- the speculators -- interact with deterministic agents -- called producers. Speculators trade only if they detect predictable patterns which grant them a positive gain. Indeed the average number of active speculators grows with the amount of information that producers inject into the market. Transitions between equilibrium and out of equilibrium behavior are observed when the relative number of speculators to the complexity of information or to the number of producers are changed. When the system is out of equilibrium, stylized facts arise, such as fat tailed distribution of returns and volatility clustering. Without speculators, the price follows a random walk; this implies that stylized facts arise because of the presence of speculators. Furthermore, if speculators abandon price taking behavior, stylized facts disappear.

Suggested Citation

  • Damien Challet & Matteo Marsili & Yi-Cheng Zhang, 2001. "Stylized facts of financial markets and market crashes in Minority Games," Papers cond-mat/0101326, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0101326
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    Cited by:

    1. Gao-Feng Gu & Xiong Xiong & Hai-Chuan Xu & Wei Zhang & Yong-Jie Zhang & Wei Chen & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2017. "An empirical behavioural order-driven model with price limit rules," Papers 1704.04354, arXiv.org.
    2. Ren, F. & Zhang, Y.C., 2008. "Trading model with pair pattern strategies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(22), pages 5523-5534.
    3. Ming-Yuan Yang & Sai-Ping Li & Li-Xin Zhong & Fei Ren, 2018. "Modelling stock correlations with expected returns from investors," Papers 1803.02019, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
    4. Wei, J.R. & Huang, J.P. & Hui, P.M., 2013. "An agent-based model of stock markets incorporating momentum investors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(12), pages 2728-2735.
    5. Torsten Trimborn & Philipp Otte & Simon Cramer & Max Beikirch & Emma Pabich & Martin Frank, 2018. "SABCEMM-A Simulator for Agent-Based Computational Economic Market Models," Papers 1801.01811, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    6. Gu, Gao-Feng & Chen, Wei & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2008. "Empirical regularities of order placement in the Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(13), pages 3173-3182.
    7. Maslov, Sergei & Mills, Mark, 2001. "Price fluctuations from the order book perspective—empirical facts and a simple model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 234-246.
    8. Marsili, Matteo, 2001. "Market mechanism and expectations in minority and majority games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 93-103.
    9. Linde, Jona & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2014. "Strategies and evolution in the minority game: A multi-round strategy experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 77-95.
    10. Matteo Ortisi & Valerio Zuccolo, 2012. "From Minority Game to Black & Scholes pricing," Papers 1205.2521, arXiv.org, revised May 2013.
    11. Andreas Krause, 2009. "Evaluating the performance of adapting trading strategies with different memory lengths," Papers 0901.0447, arXiv.org.
    12. Kiniwa, Jun & Koide, Takeshi & Sandoh, Hiroaki, 2009. "Analysis of price behavior in lazy $-game," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(18), pages 3879-3891.
    13. Sato, Aki-Hiro, 2004. "Time interval between successive trading in foreign currency market: from microscopic to macroscopic," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 211-215.
    14. Huang, Weihong & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2012. "Financial crises and regime-dependent dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 445-461.
    15. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Antoaneta Serguieva & Hao Wu, 2008. "Financial Contagion: Evolutionary Optimisation of a Multinational Agent-Based Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 2444, CESifo Group Munich.
    16. Jun-Jie Chen & Lei Tan & Bo Zheng, 2015. "Agent-based model with multi-level herding for complex financial systems," Papers 1504.01811, arXiv.org.
    17. Fan, Feng-Hua & Deng, Yanbin & Huang, Yong-Chang, 2017. "Investigation on financial crises with the negative-information-propagation-induced model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 470(C), pages 94-104.
    18. Stefan Kerbl, 2010. "Regulatory Medicine Against Financial Market Instability: What Helps And What Hurts?," Papers 1011.6284, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2010.
    19. Zapart, Christopher A., 2009. "On entropy, financial markets and minority games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(7), pages 1157-1172.
    20. Lisa Borland & Yoan Hassid, 2010. "Market panic on different time-scales," Papers 1010.4917, arXiv.org.
    21. Jun-jie Chen & Bo Zheng & Lei Tan, 2014. "Agent-based model with asymmetric trading and herding for complex financial systems," Papers 1407.5258, arXiv.org.
    22. Groot, Robert D. & Musters, Pieter A.D., 2005. "Minority Game of price promotions in fast moving consumer goods markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 350(2), pages 533-547.
    23. Moncada, J.A. & Lukszo, Z. & Junginger, M. & Faaij, A. & Weijnen, M., 2017. "A conceptual framework for the analysis of the effect of institutions on biofuel supply chains," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 895-915.
    24. Ferreira, Fernando F & Francisco, Gerson & Machado, Birajara S & Muruganandam, Paulsamy, 2003. "Time series analysis for minority game simulations of financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 321(3), pages 619-632.

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