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Self-organization and phase transition in financial markets with multiple choices

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  • Li-Xin Zhong
  • Wen-Juan Xu
  • Ping Huang
  • Chen-Yang Zhong
  • Tian Qiu

Abstract

Market confidence is essential for successful investing. By incorporating multi-market into the evolutionary minority game, we investigate the effects of investor beliefs on the evolution of collective behaviors and asset prices. When there exists another investment opportunity, market confidence, including overconfidence and under-confidence, is not always good or bad for investment. The roles of market confidence is closely related to market impact. For low market impact, overconfidence in a particular asset makes an investor become insensitive to losses and a delayed strategy adjustment leads to a decline in wealth, and thereafter, one's runaway from the market. For high market impact, under-confidence in a particular asset makes an investor over-sensitive to losses and one's too frequent strategy adjustment leads to a large fluctuation in asset prices, and thereafter, a decrease in the number of agents. At an intermediate market impact, the phase transition occurs. No matter what the market impact is, an equilibrium between different markets exists, which is reflected in the occurrence of similar price fluctuations in different markets. A theoretical analysis indicates that such an equilibrium results from the coupled effects of strategy updating and shift in investment. The runaway of the agents trading a specific asset will lead to a decline in the asset price volatility and such a decline will be inhibited by the clustering of the strategies. A uniform strategy distribution will lead to a large fluctuation in asset prices and such a fluctuation will be suppressed by the decrease in the number of agents in the market. A functional relationship between the price fluctuations and the numbers of agents is found.

Suggested Citation

  • Li-Xin Zhong & Wen-Juan Xu & Ping Huang & Chen-Yang Zhong & Tian Qiu, 2013. "Self-organization and phase transition in financial markets with multiple choices," Papers 1312.0690, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1312.0690
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bryce Morsky & Fuwei Zhuang & Zuojun Zhou, 2023. "Social and individual learning in the Minority Game," Papers 2307.11846, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    2. Zhong, Li-Xin & Xu, Wen-Juan & Chen, Rong-Da & Zhong, Chen-Yang & Qiu, Tian & Shi, Yong-Dong & Wang, Li-Liang, 2016. "A generalized voter model with time-decaying memory on a multilayer network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 95-105.
    3. Zhong, Li-Xin & Xu, Wen-Juan & Chen, Rong-Da & Zhong, Chen-Yang & Qiu, Tian & Ren, Fei & He, Yun-Xing, 2018. "Self-reinforcing feedback loop in financial markets with coupling of market impact and momentum traders," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 493(C), pages 301-310.

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