IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v15y2022i4p154-d781878.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The MAX Effect in an Oil Exporting Country: The Case of Norway

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Kashif

    (Nord University Business School, Nord University, Universitetsaléen 11, 8049 Bodø, Norway)

  • Thomas Leirvik

    (Nord University Business School, Nord University, Universitetsaléen 11, 8049 Bodø, Norway
    School of Business and Economics, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Breivangveien 23, 9010 Tromsø, Norway
    NTNU Business School, The Norwegian University for Science and Technology, Høgskoleringen 1, 7491 Trondheim, Norway)

Abstract

This paper assesses the effects of investors’ lottery-seeking behavior on expected returns in the Norwegian equity market, a relatively small equity market dominated by the energy industry. We use the MAX factor defined as maximum daily return over the previous month as the proxy of investors’ preference for lottery-like stocks. Despite evidence from recent literature that MAX has a negative relationship with the expected returns in other developed European markets, we find that the relationship is generally insignificant in Norway; however, it becomes more nuanced when we control for the state of the oil market. The dominance of firms related to the oil industry, which have experienced tremendous growth over the last couple of decades, masks the effect to a large extent. Conditional regressions show that the MAX effect is only significant in the Norwegian stock market when the oil market is in the bearish state.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Kashif & Thomas Leirvik, 2022. "The MAX Effect in an Oil Exporting Country: The Case of Norway," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:4:p:154-:d:781878
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/15/4/154/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/15/4/154/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abhay Abhyankar, Bing Xu, and Jiayue Wang, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and the Stock Market: Evidence from Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    2. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    3. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    4. Qadan, Mahmoud & Nama, Hazar, 2018. "Investor sentiment and the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 42-58.
    5. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2011. "Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 427-446, February.
    6. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks And Stock Market Booms In An Oil Exporting Country," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(2), pages 232-254, May.
    7. Friend, Irwin & Blume, Marshall E, 1970. "Measurement of Portfolio Performance Under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 561-575, September.
    8. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo & Sadeghzadeh, Mehdi, 2016. "Global oil market and the U.S. stock returns," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1277-1287.
    9. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    10. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    11. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June.
    12. Alok Kumar, 2009. "Who Gambles in the Stock Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1889-1933, August.
    13. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    14. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Verstegen, Kurt, 2013. "Are extreme returns priced in the stock market? European evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3401-3411.
    15. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    16. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
    17. Song, Yingjie & Ji, Qiang & Du, Ya-Juan & Geng, Jiang-Bo, 2019. "The dynamic dependence of fossil energy, investor sentiment and renewable energy stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    19. John M. Griffin & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Book‐to‐Market Equity, Distress Risk, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2317-2336, October.
    20. Nartea, Gilbert V. & Kong, Dongmin & Wu, Ji, 2017. "Do extreme returns matter in emerging markets? Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 189-197.
    21. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    22. Yudong Wang & Li Liu, 2016. "Crude oil and world stock markets: volatility spillovers, dynamic correlations, and hedging," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1481-1509, June.
    23. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    24. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1220-1239.
    25. Fong, Wai Mun & Toh, Benjamin, 2014. "Investor sentiment and the MAX effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 190-201.
    26. Wan, Xiaoyuan, 2018. "Is the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly driven by the MAX or MIN effect? Evidence from the Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-15.
    27. Sheng-Ping Yang & Thanh Nguyen, 2019. "Skewness Preference and Asset Pricing: Evidence from the Japanese Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-10, September.
    28. Gilbert V. Nartea & Ji Wu & Hong Tao Liu, 2014. "Extreme returns in emerging stock markets: evidence of a MAX effect in South Korea," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 425-435, March.
    29. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    30. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    31. Wai Mun Fong, 2014. "The MAX Effect," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Lottery Mindset: Investors, Gambling and the Stock Market, chapter 7, pages 138-155, Palgrave Macmillan.
    32. Kane, Alex, 1982. "Skewness Preference and Portfolio Choice," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 15-25, March.
    33. Zhang, Xindong & Xie, Lixu & Zhai, Yue & Wang, Dong, 2018. "Can microstructure noise explain the MAX effect?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 185-191.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
    2. Zhong, Angel & Gray, Philip, 2016. "The MAX effect: An exploration of risk and mispricing explanations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 76-90.
    3. Wan, Xiaoyuan, 2018. "Is the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly driven by the MAX or MIN effect? Evidence from the Chinese stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-15.
    4. Aboulamer, Anas & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2016. "Are idiosyncratic volatility and MAX priced in the Canadian market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 20-36.
    5. Melisa Ozdamar & Levent Akdeniz & Ahmet Sensoy, 2021. "Lottery-like preferences and the MAX effect in the cryptocurrency market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    6. Gao, Ya & Bradrania, Reza, 2024. "Property crime and lottery-related anomalies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    7. Bradrania, Reza & Gao, Ya, 2024. "Lottery demand, weather and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    8. Nguyen, Hung T. & Truong, Cameron, 2018. "When are extreme daily returns not lottery? At earnings announcements!," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 92-116.
    9. Zhu, Zhaobo & Harrison, DavidM. & Seiler, MichaelJ., 2020. "Preference for lottery features in real estate investment trusts," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 599-613.
    10. Shuonan Yuan & Marc Oliver Rieger & Nilüfer Caliskan, 2020. "Maxing out: the puzzling influence of past maximum returns on future asset prices in a cross-country analysis," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 70(4), pages 567-589, November.
    11. Berggrun, Luis & Cardona, Emilio & Lizarzaburu, Edmundo, 2019. "Extreme daily returns and the cross-section of expected returns: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 201-211.
    12. Ali, Syed Riaz Mahmood & Ahmed, Shaker & Östermark, Ralf, 2020. "Extreme returns and the investor’s expectation for future volatility: Evidence from the Finnish stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 260-269.
    13. Huang, Shuyang & Zeng, Ming, 2022. "Political sentiment and MAX effect," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Andreas Oehler & Julian Schneider, 2022. "Gambling with lottery stocks?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(6), pages 477-503, October.
    15. Hai, Hoang Van & Park, Jong Won & Tsai, Ping-Chen & Eom, Cheoljun, 2020. "Lottery mindset, mispricing and idiosyncratic volatility puzzle: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    16. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    17. Lin, Chaonan & Chen, Hong-Yi & Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2021. "Time-dependent lottery preference and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 272-294.
    18. Baars, Maren & Mohrschladt, Hannes, 2021. "An alternative behavioral explanation for the MAX effect," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 868-886.
    19. Zhao, Xiaojuan & Wang, Ye & Liu, Weiyi, 2024. "Someone like you: Lottery-like preference and the cross-section of expected returns in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    20. Tao, Ran & Brooks, Chris & Bell, Adrian R., 2020. "When is a MAX not the MAX? How news resolves information uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 33-51.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:4:p:154-:d:781878. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.