Modeling and Forecasting Volatility of the Malaysian and the Singaporean stock indices using Asymmetric GARCH models and Non-normal Densities
This paper examines and estimate the three GARCH(1,1) models (GARCH, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH) using the daily price data. Two Asian stock indices KLCI and STI are studied using daily data over a 14-years period. The competing Models include GARCH, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH used with three different distributions, Gaussian normal, Student-t, Generalized Error Distribution. The estimation results show that the forecasting performance of asymmetric GARCH Models (GJR-GARCH and EGARCH), especially when fat-tailed asymmetric densities are taken into account in the conditional volatility, is better than symmetric GARCH. Moreover, its found that the AR(1)-GJR model provide the best out-of- sample forecast for the Malaysian stock market, while AR(1)-EGARCH provide a better estimation for the Singaporean stock market.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W. & McKenzie, Michael D. & Mitchell, Heather, 2000. "A multi-country study of power ARCH models and national stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 377-397, June.
- Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2002.
"A Test for Volatility Spillovers,"
Public Policy Discussion Papers
02-04, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Conditional volatility, skewness, and kurtosis: existence, persistence, and comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1699-1737, August.
- Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J., 1996. "Modeling volatility persistence of speculative returns: A new approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 185-215, July.
- Sang W. Kim & John H. Rogers, 1995.
"International stock price spillovers and market liberalization: evidence from Korea, Japan, and the United States,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
499, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kim, Sang W. & Rogers, John H., 1995. "International stock price spillovers and market liberalization: Evidence from Korea, Japan, and the United States," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 117-133, June.
- Kim, S.W. & Rogers, J.H., 1993. "International Stock Price Spillovers and Market Liberalization: Evidence from Korea, Japan, and the United States," Papers 4-93-7, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Christofi, A. & Pericli, A., 1999. "Correlation in price changes and volatility of major Latin American stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 79-93, January.
- Hong, Yongmiao, 2001. "A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 183-224, July.
- Chan-Lau, Jorge A. & Ivaschenko, Iryna, 2003. "Asian Flu or Wall Street virus? Tech and non-tech spillovers in the United States and Asia," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 303-322, December.
- Speight, Alan E. H. & McMillan, David G., 2001. "Volatility spillovers in East European black-market exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 367-378, June.
- Ng, Angela, 2000. "Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-233, April.
- Tse, Yiuman & Wu, Chunchi & Young, Allan, 2003. "Asymmetric information transmission between a transition economy and the U.S. market: evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-332, December.
- Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000.
"Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
- Palmitesta Paola & Provasi Corrado, 2004. "GARCH-type Models with Generalized Secant Hyperbolic Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-19, May.
- Wang, Steven Shuye & Firth, Michael, 2004. "Do bears and bulls swim across oceans? Market information transmission between greater China and the rest of the world," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 235-254, July.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Hu, John Wei-Shan & Chen, Mei-Yuan & Fok, Robert C. W. & Huang, Bwo-Nung, 1997. "Causality in volatility and volatility spillover effects between US, Japan and four equity markets in the South China Growth Triangular," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 351-367, December.
- Kim, Suk-Joong, 2003. "The spillover effects of US and Japanese public information news in advanced Asia-Pacific stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 611-630, November.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1996. "A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 33-48.
- Lee, Bong-Soo & Rui, Oliver Meng & Wang, Steven Shuye, 2004. "Information transmission between the NASDAQ and Asian second board markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1637-1670, July.
- Koutmos, Gregory & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1995. "Asymmetric volatility transmission in international stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 747-762, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0509015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.