IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpdc/0409059.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Military Expenditure in Post-Conflict Societies

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Collier

    (Centre for the Study of African Economies)

  • Anke Hoeffler

    (Centre for the Study of African Economies)

Abstract

Post-conflict situations face a high risk of reversion to conflict. We investigate the effect of military expenditure by the government during the first decade post-conflict on the risk of reversion. We contrast two theories as to the likely effects. In one, military spending deters conflict by reducing the prospects of rebel success. In the other it acts as a signal to the rebels of government intentions. In the signalling model, low military spending signals that the government intends to adhere to the terms of the peace settlement and so reduces the risk of renewed rebellion. We investigate the effects of post- conflict military spending on the risk of conflict, using our existing models of military expenditure and of conflict risk. We find that, consistent with the signalling model, high military spending post- conflict significantly increases the risk of renewed conflict. This effect of military spending is distinctive to post-conflict period, and becomes progressively more pronounced over the decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Military Expenditure in Post-Conflict Societies," Development and Comp Systems 0409059, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0409059
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 30
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/dev/papers/0409/0409059.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malcolm Knight & Norman Loayza & Delano Villanueva, 1996. "The Peace Dividend: Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 1-37, March.
    2. Walter, Barbara F., 1997. "The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(03), pages 335-364, June.
    3. Omar M. G. Keshk, 2003. "CDSIMEQ: A program to implement two-stage probit least squares," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(2), pages 157-167, June.
    4. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13938, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bluhm, Richard & Gassebner, Martin & Langlotz, Sarah & Schaudt, Paul, 2016. "Fueling conflict? : (De)escalation and bilateral aid," MERIT Working Papers 053, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    2. Siyan Chen & Norman V. Loayza & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2008. "The Aftermath of Civil War," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 22(1), pages 63-85, February.
    3. Bove, Vincenzo & Nisticò, Roberto, 2014. "Military in politics and budgetary allocations," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 1065-1078.
    4. Abdelbaki, Professor Hisham, 2013. "The Arab spring: do we need a new theory?," MPRA Paper 54801, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    5. Fabrizio Carmignani & Adrian Gauci, 2009. "Does fiscal policy differ between successful and unsuccessful post-conflict transitions? Lessons from African Civil Wars," Discussion Papers Series 402, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    6. Olaf J. de Groot, 2012. "Analyzing the costs of military engagement," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 41-49, July.
    7. Stadelmann, David & Portmann, Marco & Eichenberger, Reiner, 2015. "Military careers of politicians matter for national security policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 142-156.
    8. Indra de Soysa & Eric Neumayer, 2005. "Disarming Fears of Diversity: Ethnic Heterogeneity and State Militarization, 1988–2002," Public Economics 0503008, EconWPA, revised 01 Sep 2005.
    9. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler & Anke Hoeffler & Måns Söderbom, 2006. "Post-Conflict Risks," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2006-12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    10. Giorgio d'Agostino & J Paul Dunne & Luca Pieroni, 2016. "How much does military spending affect growth? Causal estimates from the World's non-rich countries," SALDRU Working Papers 196, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    11. Baddeley, M.C., 2008. "Poverty, Armed Conflict and Financial Instability," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0857, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Byrd, William & Guimbert, Stephane, 2009. "Public Finance, Security, and Development: A Framework and an Application to Afghanistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4806, The World Bank.
    13. Albalate, Daniel & Bel, Germà & Elias, Ferran, 2012. "Institutional determinants of military spending," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-290.
    14. repec:ldr:wpaper:95 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Mahmoud Al Iriani & Yahsob Al Eriani, 2015. "Fiscal Institutions and Macroeconomic Managment in Resource Rich Economies: the Case of Yemen," Working Papers 935, Economic Research Forum, revised Aug 2015.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0409059. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA). General contact details of provider: http://econwpa.repec.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.