IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ecogov/v7y2006i1p89-107.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Military expenditure in post-conflict societies

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Collier
  • Anke Hoeffler

Abstract

Post-conflict situations face a high risk of reversion to conflict. We investigate the effect of military expenditure by the government during the first decade post-conflict on the risk of reversion. We contrast two theories as to the likely effects. In one, military spending deters conflict by reducing the prospects of rebel success. In the other it acts as a signal to the rebels of government intentions. In the signalling model, low military spending signals that the government intends to adhere to the terms of the peace settlement and so reduces the risk of renewed rebellion. We investigate the effects of post-conflict military spending on the risk of conflict, using our existing models of military expenditure and of conflict risk. We find that, consistent with the signalling model, high military spending post-conflict significantly increases the risk of renewed conflict. This effect of military spending is distinctive to post-conflict period, and becomes progressively more pronounced over the decade. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2006. "Military expenditure in post-conflict societies," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 89-107, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:ecogov:v:7:y:2006:i:1:p:89-107
    DOI: 10.1007/s10101-004-0091-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10101-004-0091-9
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10101-004-0091-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malcolm Knight & Norman Loayza & Delano Villanueva, 1996. "The Peace Dividend: Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 1-37, March.
    2. Walter, Barbara F., 1997. "The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 335-364, July.
    3. Hirshleifer,Jack, 2001. "The Dark Side of the Force," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521009171.
    4. Omar M. G. Keshk, 2003. "CDSIMEQ: A program to implement two-stage probit least squares," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(2), pages 157-167, June.
    5. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13938, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard Bluhm & Martin Gassebner & Sarah Langlotz & Paul Schaudt, 2021. "Fueling conflict? (De)escalation and bilateral aid," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 244-261, March.
    2. Marie-Ange Véganzonès-Varoudakis & Syed Muhammad All-E-Raza Rizvi, 2019. "Conflict, Growth and Human Development An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan," Post-Print hal-03060036, HAL.
    3. Halvard Buhaug, 2010. "Dude, Where’s My Conflict?," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 27(2), pages 107-128, April.
    4. Abdelbaki, Professor Hisham, 2013. "The Arab spring: do we need a new theory?," MPRA Paper 54801, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    5. Chernor Momodu Bah & Mohamed Ouedraogo, 2022. "The Effect of Natural Resources on Economic Growth in West Africa: The Mediating Role of Human Capital Disaggregation," Journal of Contemporary Research in Business, Economics and Finance, Learning Gate, vol. 4(2), pages 27-42.
    6. Siyan Chen & Norman V. Loayza & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2008. "The Aftermath of Civil War," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 22(1), pages 63-85, February.
    7. J. Paul Dunne & Nan Tian, 2015. "Military Expenditure, Economic Growth and Heterogeneity," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 15-31, February.
    8. Stadelmann, David & Portmann, Marco & Eichenberger, Reiner, 2015. "Military careers of politicians matter for national security policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 142-156.
    9. Sacit Hadi Akdede & Jinyoung Hwang & Emre Can, 2008. "Cultural Diversity, Domestic Political Violence And Public Expenditures," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 235-247.
    10. Giorgio d’Agostino & John Paul Dunne & Luca Pieroni, 2019. "Military Expenditure, Endogeneity and Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 509-524, July.
    11. Mahmoud Al Iriani & Yahsob Al Eriani, 2015. "Fiscal Institutions and Macroeconomic Managment in Resource Rich Economies: the Case of Yemen," Working Papers 935, Economic Research Forum, revised Aug 2015.
    12. Albalate, Daniel & Bel, Germà & Elias, Ferran, 2012. "Institutional determinants of military spending," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-290.
    13. Anna Balestra & Raul Caruso, 2024. "Education and Military Expenditures: Countervailing Forces in Designing Economic Policy. A Contribution to the Empirics of Peace," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Politica Economica dipe0035, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    14. Bove, Vincenzo & Nisticò, Roberto, 2014. "Military in politics and budgetary allocations," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 1065-1078.
    15. Fabrizio Carmignani & Adrian Gauci, 2009. "Does fiscal policy differ between successful and unsuccessful post-conflict transitions? Lessons from African Civil Wars," Discussion Papers Series 402, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    16. Olaf J. de Groot, 2012. "Analyzing the costs of military engagement," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 41-49, July.
    17. Indra de Soysa & Eric Neumayer, 2005. "Disarming Fears of Diversity: Ethnic Heterogeneity and State Militarization, 1988–2002," Public Economics 0503008, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 2005.
    18. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler & Anke Hoeffler & Måns Söderbom, 2006. "Post-Conflict Risks," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2006-12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    19. Giorgio d'Agostino & J Paul Dunne & Luca Pieroni, 2016. "How much does military spending affect growth? Causal estimates from the World's non-rich countries," SALDRU Working Papers 196, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    20. Baddeley, M.C., 2008. "Poverty, Armed Conflict and Financial Instability," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0857, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    21. Hanne Fjelde & Indra De Soysa, 2009. "Coercion, Co-optation, or Cooperation?," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 26(1), pages 5-25, February.
    22. Byrd, William & Guimbert, Stephane, 2009. "Public Finance, Security, and Development: A Framework and an Application to Afghanistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4806, The World Bank.
    23. Tilman Brück & Olaf J de Groot & Friedrich Schneider, 2011. "The economic costs of the German participation in the Afghanistan war," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(6), pages 793-805, November.
    24. repec:ldr:wpaper:95 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Military Expenditure in Post-Conflict Societies," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2004-13, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Vahabi,Mehrdad, 2019. "The Political Economy of Predation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107591370.
    3. Chang Woon Nam & Jan Schumacher, 2014. "Dynamics and Time Frameof Post War Recovery Required for Compensating Civil War Economic Losses," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(03), pages 79-87, August.
    4. Clayton L. Thyne, 2006. "Cheap Signals with Costly Consequences," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(6), pages 937-961, December.
    5. Flores Thomas Edward, 2014. "Vertical Inequality, Land Reform, and Insurgency in Colombia," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 5-31, January.
    6. Stergios Skaperdas, 2011. "The costs of organized violence: a review of the evidence," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, March.
    7. Klaus Deininger & Ana María Ibáñez & Pablo Querubin, 2004. "Towards Sustainable Return Policies for the Displaced Population: Why Are Some Displaced Households More Willing to Return than Others?," HiCN Working Papers 07, Households in Conflict Network.
    8. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler & Anke Hoeffler & Måns Söderbom, 2006. "Post-Conflict Risks," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2006-12, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Joseph Mawejje & Patrick McSharry, 2021. "The economic cost of conflict: Evidence from South Sudan," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 1969-1990, November.
    10. Caroline A. Hartzell, 2009. "Settling Civil Wars," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 26(4), pages 347-365, September.
    11. Doussoulin, Jean Pierre & Mougenot, Benoit, 2022. "Mapping mining and ecological distribution conflicts in Latin America, a bibliometric analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. David Castells-Quintana & Maria del Pilar Lopez-Uribe & Tom McDermott, 2015. "Climate change and the geographical and institutional drivers of economic development," GRI Working Papers 198, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    13. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13938, December.
    14. Kimbambu Tsasa Vangu, Jean - Paul, 2012. "Analyse de la Relation Guerres Civiles et Croissance Économique [Civil Wars and Economic Growth in DRC]," MPRA Paper 42424, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Feb 2012.
    15. Lisa Hultman & Jacob D. Kathman & Megan Shannon, 2016. "United Nations peacekeeping dynamics and the duration of post-civil conflict peace," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(3), pages 231-249, July.
    16. Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & Castells-Quintana, David & McDermott, Thomas K. J., 2017. "Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Kristian Skrede Gleditsch & Kyle Beardsley, 2004. "Nosy Neighbors," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(3), pages 379-402, June.
    18. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    19. Michelle Rebosio & Per Egil Wam, 2011. "Violent Conflict and the Road Sector : Points of Interaction," World Bank Publications - Reports 13011, The World Bank Group.
    20. Thomas Edward Flores & Irfan Nooruddin, 2009. "Democracy under the Gun Understanding Postconflict Economic Recovery," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(1), pages 3-29, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Military expenditure; peace dividend; civil war;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ecogov:v:7:y:2006:i:1:p:89-107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.