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Explaining the Severity of Civil Wars

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  • Bethany Lacina

    (Political Science Department, Stanford University)

Abstract

The burgeoning literature on civil conflicts seldom considers why some civil wars are so much deadlier than others. This article investigates that question using a new data set of the number of combat deaths in internal conflicts from 1946 to 2002. The first section presents descriptive statistics on battle deaths by era, conflict type, and region. The article then tests state strength, regime type, and cultural characteristics as predictors of the number of combat deaths in civil war. The determinants of conflict severity seem to be quite different from those for conflict onset. Democracy, rather than economic development or state military strength, is most strongly correlated with fewer deaths; wars have also been less deadly on average since the end of the cold war. Religious heterogeneity does not explain the military severity of internal violence, and surprisingly, ethnic homogeneity may be related to more deadly conflicts.

Suggested Citation

  • Bethany Lacina, 2006. "Explaining the Severity of Civil Wars," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(2), pages 276-289, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:50:y:2006:i:2:p:276-289
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002705284828
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Ghobarah, Hazem Adam & Huth, Paul & Russett, Bruce, 2003. "Civil Wars Kill and Maim People—Long After the Shooting Stops," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(2), pages 189-202, May.
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    5. Bethany Lacina & Nils Petter Gleditsch, 2005. "Monitoring Trends in Global Combat: A New Dataset of Battle Deaths," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 145-166, June.
    6. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13938, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen Chaudoin & Zachary Peskowitz & Christopher Stanton, 2014. "Beyond Zeroes and Ones: The Intensity and Dynamics of Civil Conflict," NBER Working Papers 20258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Rigterink, Anouk S., 2010. "The wrong suspect. An enquiry into the endogeneity of natural resource measures to civil war," MPRA Paper 45263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mitchener, Kris James & Oosterlinck, Kim & Weidenmier, Marc D. & Haber, Stephen, 2015. "Victory or repudiation? Predicting winners in civil wars using international financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 310-319.
    4. Armand Chatard & Leila Selimbegović & Paul N'Dri Konan & Jamie Arndt & Tom Pyszczynski & Fabio Lorenzi-Cioldi & Martial Van der Linden, 2011. "Terror management in times of war: Mortality salience effects on self-esteem and governmental and army support," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(2), pages 225-234, March.
    5. Matthew Costello, 2018. "Oil and Gas Rents and Civilian Violence in the Middle East and North Africa, 1990–2004: A Resource Curse, or Rentier Peace?," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Anderton,Charles H. & Carter,John R., 2009. "Principles of Conflict Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521875578, December.
    7. Chaudoin, Stephen & Peskowitz, Zachary & Stanton, Christopher, 2013. "Beyond zeroes and ones: the severity and evolution of civil conflict," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59077, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Haber, Stephen H & Weidenmier, Marc & Oosterlinck, Kim & Mitchener, Kris, 2014. "Predicting Winners in Civil Wars," CEPR Discussion Papers 10109, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Carolyn Chisadza & Manoel Bittencourt, 2016. "Globalisation and Conflict: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 634, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    10. repec:bpj:pepspp:v:18:y:2012:i:3:p:13:n:13 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. John D. Huber & Laura Mayoral, 2019. "Group inequality and the severity of civil conflict," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-41, March.
    12. David Siroky & Valery Dzutsati, 2015. "The Empire Strikes Back: Ethnicity, Terrain, and Indiscriminate Violence in Counterinsurgencies," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 96(3), pages 807-829, September.
    13. Michael Bleaney & Arcangelo Dimico, 2009. "Incidence, Onset and Duration of Civil Wars: A Review of the Evidence," Discussion Papers 09/08, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    14. Huber, Christoph & Basedau, Matthias, 2018. "When Do Religious Minorities' Grievances Lead to Peaceful or Violent Protest? Evidence from Canada’s Jewish and Muslim Communities," GIGA Working Papers 313, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    15. Michael Bleaney & Arcangelo Dimico, 2011. "How different are the correlates of onset and continuation of civil wars?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(2), pages 145-155, March.

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