Optimal Search on a Technology Landscape
Technological change at the firm level has commonly been modeled as random sampling from a fixed distribution o f possibilities. Such models, however, typically ignore empirically important aspects of the firm's search process, notably the observation that the present state of the firm guides future innovation. In this paper we explicitly treat this apsect of the firm's search for technological improvements by introducing a "technology landscape" into an otherwise standard dynamic programming setting where the optimal strategy is to assign a reservation price to each possible technology. Search is modeled as movement, constrained by the cost of innovation, over the technology landscape. Simulations are presented on a stylized technology landscape while analytic results are derived using landscapes that are similar to Markov random fields. We find that early in the search for technological improvements, if the inital position is poor or average, it is optimal to search far away on the technology landscape; but as the firm succeeds in finding technological improvements it is optimal to confine search to a local region of the landscape. We obtain the result that there are diminishing returns to search without having to make the assumption that the firm's repeated draws from the search space are independent and identically distributed.
|Date of creation:||Oct 1998|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501|
Web page: http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/working-papers.html
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J. & Samuelson, L., 1988.
"The Growth And Failure Of U.S. Manufacturing Plants,"
1-87-5, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1989. "The Growth and Failure of U. S. Manufacturing Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(4), pages 671-698.
- Romer, Paul M, 1990.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
- Martin Neil Baily & Eric J. Bartelsman & John Haltiwanger, 1994.
"Downsizing and Productivity Growth: Myth or Reality?,"
NBER Working Papers
4741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Haltiwanger & Martin N Baily & Eric J Bartelsman, 1994. "Downsizing and Productivity Growth: Myth or Reality?," Working Papers 94-4, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Martin N. Baily & Eric J. Bartelsman & John Haltiwanger, 1994. "Downsizing and productivity growth: myth or reality?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- James D Adams & Leo Sveikauskas, 1993. "Academic Science, Industrial R&D, and the Growth of Inputs," Working Papers 93-1, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Cohen, Wesley M & Levinthal, Daniel A, 1989. "Innovation and Learning: The Two Faces of R&D," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 569-596, September.
- Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1992.
"Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-863.
- Steve J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1991. "Gross job creation, gross job destruction and employment reallocation," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Steve J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1991. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction and Employment Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 3728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kohn, Meir G. & Shavell, Steven, 1974. "The theory of search," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 93-123, October.
- John F. Muth, 1986. "Search Theory and the Manufacturing Progress Function," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(8), pages 948-962, August.
- Marengo, L, 1992. "Coordination and Organizational Learning in the Firm," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 313-326, December.
- David Audretsch, 1994. "Business Survival and the Decision to Exit," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 125-137.
- Richard Ericson & Ariel Pakes, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82.
- Phil Auerswald & Jose Lobo & Karl Shell, "undated". "A Microeconomic Theory of Learning-by-Doing: An Application of Nascent Technology Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 128, Society for Computational Economics.
- Prescott, Edward C & Visscher, Michael, 1980. "Organization Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 446-461, June.
- Douglas W Dwyer, 1995. "Technology Locks, Creative Destruction And Non-Convergence In Productivity Levels," Working Papers 95-6, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Audretsch, David B, 1991. "New-Firm Survival and the Technological Regime," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(3), pages 441-450, August.
- Terry Jones, 1994. "A Model of Landscapes," Working Papers 94-02-002, Santa Fe Institute.
- Jovanovic, Boyan & Rob, Rafael, 1990.
"Long Waves and Short Waves: Growth through Intensive and Extensive Search,"
Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1391-1409, November.
- Boyan Jovanovic & Rafael Rob, 1990. "Long Waves and Short Waves: Growth Through Intensive and Extensive Search," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2082, David K. Levine.
- Jovanovic, Boyan & Rob, Rafael, 1987. "Long Waves and Short Waves: Growth Through Intensive and Extensive Search," Working Papers 87-35, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Herriott, Scott R & Levinthal, Daniel & March, James G, 1985. "Learning from Experience in Organizations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 298-302, May.
- Denis M. S. Lee & Thomas J. Allen, 1982. "Integrating New Technical Staff: Implications for Acquiring New Technology," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(12), pages 1405-1420, December.
- Peter F. Stadler & Robert Happel, 1995. "Random Field Models for Fitness Landscapes," Working Papers 95-07-069, Santa Fe Institute.
- Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J. & Samuelson, L., 1988.
"Pattenrs Of Firm Entry And Exit In U.S. Manufacturing Industries,"
1-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1988. "Patterns of Firm Entry and Exit in U.S. Manufacturing Industries," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(4), pages 495-515, Winter.
- S. Bikhchandani & S. Sharma, 1990.
"Optimal Search with Learning,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
580, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Weitzman, Martin L, 1979.
"Optimal Search for the Best Alternative,"
Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 641-654, May.
- Kennedy, Peter W., 1994. "Information processing and organization design," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 37-51, September.
- Evenson, Robert E & Kislev, Yoav, 1976. "A Stochastic Model of Applied Research," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 265-281, April.
- Sahal, Devendra, 1985. "Technological guideposts and innovation avenues," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 61-82, April.
- Levinthal, Daniel & March, James G., 1981. "A model of adaptive organizational search," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 307-333, December.
- Dunne, Timothy & Haltiwanger, John & Troske, Kenneth R., 1997.
"Technology and jobs: secular changes and cyclical dynamics,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 107-178, June.
- Timothy Dunne & Kenneth R Troske & John Haltiwanger, 1996. "Technology and Jobs: Secular Changes and Cyclical Dynamics," Working Papers 96-7, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Timothy Dunne & John Haltiwanger & Kenneth R. Troske, 1996. "Technology and Jobs: Secular Changes and Cyclical Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 5656, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:safire:98-10-091e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.