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Measuring the Impact of Intervention on Exchange Market Pressure

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Abstract

We introduce an index of ex ante exchange market pressure (EMP) that can be used as a benchmark against which to measure the effectiveness of sterilized intervention. Ex ante EMP is the change in the exchange rate that would be observed if the authorities refrain from intervening and agents correctly anticipate this outcome. Ex post EMP measures exchange market pressure under the policy actually implemented. We use a ratio of these two EMP measures to assess the effectiveness of sterilized intervention in Canada and Australia, and find that its effects persist even in quarterly data.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Siklos, D. Waymark, 2006. "Measuring the Impact of Intervention on Exchange Market Pressure," Working Papers eg0048, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, revised 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:wlu:wpaper:eg0048
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    File URL: http://www.wlu.ca/documents/22951/EMP_SW_12_2006.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984. "An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April.
    2. Weymark, Diana N., 1995. "Estimating exchange market pressure and the degree of exchange market intervention for Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 273-295, November.
    3. Pierre L. Siklos, 2003. "Assessing the Impact of Changes in Transparency and Accountability at the Bank of Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 29(3), pages 279-299, September.
    4. Weymark, Diana N, 1998. "A General Approach to Measuring Exchange Market Pressure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 106-121, January.
    5. repec:syd:wpaper:99-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bonser-Neal, Catherine & Tanner, Glenn, 1996. "Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: evidence from the options market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 853-878, December.
    7. Scott Hendry & Charleen Adam, 2001. "The M1 Vector-Error-Correction Model: some Extensions and Applications," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 145-175, July-Dece.
    8. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related, and Does It Really Matter?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 185-214, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre L. Siklos & Diana N. Weymark, 2007. "Is Sterilized Intervention Effective? New International Evidence," Working Papers 142007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange market pressure; foreign exchange intervention; Bank of Canada;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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