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The Steadiness of Migration Plans and Expected Length of Stay – Based on a Recent Survey of Romanian Migrants in Italy

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  • Michael Landesmann

    () (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Isilda Mara

    () (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

Abstract The study analyses migration intentions and expected length of stay in the host country, taking account of the propensity to change (or retain) migration plans during the course of the migration experience in the host country. We analyse the particular case of Romanian migrants in Italy, using a survey conducted in 2011 in the context of the TEMPO/NORFACE project. We used different specifications to analyse the exogeneity vs endogeneity of steady/changing migration plans regarding expected length of stay and migration intentions. The survey and the analysis showed that Romanian migrants, both men and women, who arrived in Italy after May 2004 have modified their migration plans, the main determinants being employment and family reasons. Migrants who have maintained similar migration plans to the ones upon arrival are mostly those with a preference for long-term and permanent migration. Gender differences in analysing migration plans matter as diverse patterns emerge for men compared to women. Differently from women, men plan their length of stay based on the employment context, especially on whether the job is adequate to the level of qualification and whether earnings match expectations. For women, on the other hand, family context variables play a significant role. The paper concludes that migration intentions could be a good predictor of migration behaviour if we account for the endogeneity of steadiness/switching of such plans.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Landesmann & Isilda Mara, 2013. "The Steadiness of Migration Plans and Expected Length of Stay – Based on a Recent Survey of Romanian Migrants in Italy," wiiw Working Papers 104, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  • Handle: RePEc:wii:wpaper:104
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael C. Burda & Wolfgang Härdle & Marlene Müller & Axel Werwatz, 1998. "Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: facts and theory," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 525-541.
    2. Locher, Lilo, 2001. "Testing for the Option Value of Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 405, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    3. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2002. "The optimal migration duration and activity choice after re-migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-372, April.
    4. Dustmann, Christian, 2003. "Return migration, wage differentials, and the optimal migration duration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 353-369, April.
    5. Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
    6. Berninghaus, Siegfried & Seifert-Vogt, Hans Gunther, 1993. "The role of the target saving motive in guest worker migration A theoretical study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 181-205.
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    9. Hendrik P. van Dalen & Kène Henkens, 2004. "The Rationality behind Immigration Preferences," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-002/1, Tinbergen Institute.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Isilda Mara & Michael Landesmann, 2013. "Do I stay because I am happy or am I happy because I stay? Life satisfaction in migration, and the decision to stay permanently, return and out-migrate," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2013008, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
    2. Nikolova, Milena & Roman, Monica & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2017. "Left behind but doing good? Civic engagement in two post-socialist countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 658-684.
    3. Michael Landesmann & Sandra M. Leitner & Isilda Mara, 2015. "Should I Stay, Should I Go Back or Should I Move Further? Contrasting Answers under Diverse Migration Regimes," wiiw Working Papers 111, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration; temporary/permanent; Romanian migrants; applied econometrics; bivariate ordered probit; migrants in Italy;

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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