The steadiness of migration plans and expected length of stay: based on a recent survey of Romanian migrants in Italy
The study analyses migration intentions and expected length of stay in the host country, taking account of the propensity to change (or retain) migration plans during the course of the migration experience in the host country. We analyse the particular case of Romanian migrants in Italy using a survey conducted in 2011 in the context of the TEMPO/NORFACE project. We used different specifications to analyse the exogeneity vs endogeneity of steady/ changing migration plans on expected length of stay and migration intentions. The survey and the analysis showed that Romanian migrants, both men and women, who arrived in Italy after May 2004, have modified their migration plans and the main determinants have been employment and family reasons. Migrants who have maintained similar migration plans to the ones upon arrival are mostly those with preference for long-term and permanent migration. Counting for gender differences in analysing migration plans matters because diverse patterns emerge for men compared to women. Differently from women, men plan their length of stay based on the employment context, especially on whether the job is adequate to the level of qualification and whether earnings match expectations. For women, on the other hand, family context variables play a significant role. In conclusion, migration intentions could be a good predictor of migration behaviour if we account for the endogeneity of steadiness/switching of such plans.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Drayton House, 30 Gordon Street, London WC1H 0AX|
Phone: +44 (0)20 7679 5888
Fax: +44 (0)20 7916 2775
Web page: http://www.cream-migration.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Burda, Michael C. & Härdle, Wolfgang & Müller, Marlene & Werwatz, Axel, 1997.
"Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: Facts and theory,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
1998,3, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Michael C. Burda & Wolfgang Härdle & Marlene Müller & Axel Werwatz, 1998. "Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: facts and theory," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 525-541.
- Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2000.
"The optimal migration duration and activity choice after re-migration,"
00-39, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
- Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2002. "The optimal migration duration and activity choice after re-migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-372, April.
- Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2001. "The Optimal Migration Duration and Activity Choice after Re-migration," IZA Discussion Papers 266, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2000. "The Optimal Migration Duration and Activity Choice after Re-migration," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 00-39, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Berninghaus, Siegfried & Seifert-Vogt, Hans Gunther, 1993. "The role of the target saving motive in guest worker migration A theoretical study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 181-205.
- Christian Dustmann & Josep Mestres, 2009.
"Remittances and Temporary Migration,"
CReAM Discussion Paper Series
0909, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
- Dustmann, Christian, 2003.
"Return migration, wage differentials, and the optimal migration duration,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 353-369, April.
- Dustmann, Christian, 2001. "Return Migration, Wage Differentials, and the Optimal Migration Duration," IZA Discussion Papers 264, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Constant, Amelie F. & Massey, Douglas S., 2002.
"Self-Selection, Earnings, and Out-Migration: A Longitudinal Study of Immigrants to Germany,"
IZA Discussion Papers
672, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
- Hendrik P. van Dalen & Kène Henkens, 2004. "The Rationality behind Immigration Preferences," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-002/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Galor, Oded & Stark, Oded, 1990. "Migrants' Savings, the Probability of Return Migration and Migrants' Performance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(2), pages 463-67, May.
- Locher, Lilo, 2001. "Testing for the Option Value of Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 405, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nor:wpaper:2013007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Norface Migration Administrator)or (Thomas Cornelissen)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.