IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/9738.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade, Internal Migration, and Human Capital : Who Gains from India’s IT Boom?

Author

Listed:
  • Ghose,Devaki

Abstract

How do trade shocks affect welfare and inequality when human capital is endogenous? Using an external information technology demand shock and detailed internal migration data from India, this paper first documents that both information technology employment and engineering enrollment responded to the rise in information technology exports. Information technology employment responded more when nearby regions had a higher share of college-age population. The paper then develops a quantitative spatial equilibrium model featuring two new channels: higher education choice and differential costs of migrating for college and work. The framework is used to quantify the aggregate and distributional effects of the information technology boom and perform counterfactuals. Without endogenous education, the estimated aggregate welfare gain from the export shock would have been about a third as large and regional inequality twice as large. Reducing barriers to mobility for education, such as reducing in-state quotas for students at higher education institutes, would substantially reduce inequality in the gains from the information technology boom across districts.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghose,Devaki, 2021. "Trade, Internal Migration, and Human Capital : Who Gains from India’s IT Boom?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9738, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9738
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/565441627412473697/pdf/Trade-Internal-Migration-and-Human-Capital-Who-Gains-from-India-s-IT-Boom.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dave Donaldson, 2018. "Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 899-934, April.
    2. Findlay, Ronald & Kierzkowski, Henryk, 1983. "International Trade and Human Capital: A Simple General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(6), pages 957-978, December.
    3. Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1992. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(1), pages 35-78.
    4. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    5. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2001. "Can Falling Supply Explain the Rising Return to College for Younger Men? A Cohort-Based Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(2), pages 705-746.
    6. Simonovska, Ina & Waugh, Michael E., 2014. "The elasticity of trade: Estimates and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 34-50.
    7. Bryan, Gharad & Morten, Melanie, 2019. "The aggregate productivity effects of internal migration: evidence from Indonesia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88177, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Van Leemput, Eva, 2021. "A passage to India: Quantifying internal and external barriers to trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    9. Treb Allen & Costas Arkolakis, 2014. "Trade and the Topography of the Spatial Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(3), pages 1085-1140.
    10. Trevor Tombe & Xiaodong Zhu, 2019. "Trade, Migration, and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis of China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1843-1872, May.
    11. Eric V. Edmonds & Nina Pavcnik & Petia Topalova, 2010. "Trade Adjustment and Human Capital Investments: Evidence from Indian Tariff Reform," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 42-75, October.
    12. Benjamin F. Jones, 2014. "The Human Capital Stock: A Generalized Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3752-3777, November.
    13. Gauri Kartini Shastry, 2012. "Human Capital Response to Globalization: Education and Information Technology in India," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(2), pages 287-330.
    14. David Atkin, 2016. "Endogenous Skill Acquisition and Export Manufacturing in Mexico," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(8), pages 2046-2085, August.
    15. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1970. "Factor Price Equalization in a Dynamic Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 456-488, May-June.
    16. Greenland, Andrew & Lopresti, John, 2016. "Import exposure and human capital adjustment: Evidence from the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 50-60.
    17. Shihui Ma & Yue Liu & Mohan Zhou, 2019. "Trade, educational costs, and skill acquisition," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 1460-1479, November.
    18. Danziger, Eliav, 2017. "Skill acquisition and the dynamics of trade-induced inequality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 60-74.
    19. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Esther Duflo, 2000. "Reputation Effects and the Limits of Contracting: A Study of the Indian Software Industry," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(3), pages 989-1017.
    20. Jaewoo Ryoo & Sherwin Rosen, 2004. "The Engineering Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(S1), pages 110-140, February.
    21. Lorenzo Caliendo & Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro, 2019. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 741-835, May.
    22. Simon Fuchs, 2018. "The Spoils of War: Trade Shocks during WWI and Spain’s Regional Development," 2018 Meeting Papers 1172, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Borsook, I., 1987. "Earnings, ability and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3-4), pages 281-295, May.
    24. Zovanga L Kone & Maggie Y Liu & Aaditya Mattoo & Caglar Ozden & Siddharth Sharma, 2018. "Internal borders and migration in India," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 729-759.
    25. Axelle Ferriere & Gaston Navarro & Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, 2018. "Escaping the Losses from Trade: The Impact of Heterogeneity on Skill Acquisition," 2018 Meeting Papers 1248, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    26. Li, Bingjing, 2018. "Export expansion, skill acquisition and industry specialization: evidence from china," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 346-361.
    27. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2007. "Long-Run Changes in the Wage Structure: Narrowing, Widening, Polarizing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(2), pages 135-168.
    28. Matthew T. Johnson, 2013. "Borrowing Constraints, College Enrollment, and Delayed Entry," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(4), pages 669-725.
    29. Jingting Fan, 2019. "Internal Geography, Labor Mobility, and the Distributional Impacts of Trade," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 252-288, July.
    30. repec:mpr:mprres:7891 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Imbert, Clément & Papp, John, 2020. "Costs and benefits of rural-urban migration: Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    32. Kapur, Devesh & Mehta, Pratap Bhanu, 2008. "Mortgaging the Future? Indian Higher Education," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 101-157.
    33. Oster, Emily & Steinberg, Bryce Millett, 2013. "Do IT service centers promote school enrollment? Evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 123-135.
    34. Matthew T. Johnson, 2013. "Borrowing Constraints, College Enrollment, and Delayed Entry," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 57fc00235c3a47ff92cb253f9, Mathematica Policy Research.
    35. Blanchard, Emily J. & Olney, William W., 2017. "Globalization and human capital investment: Export composition drives educational attainment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 165-183.
    36. Gaurav Khanna & Nicolas Morales, 2017. "The IT Boom and Other Unintended Consequences of Chasing the American Dream - Working Paper 460," Working Papers 460, Center for Global Development.
    37. Gharad Bryan & Melanie Morten, 2019. "The Aggregate Productivity Effects of Internal Migration: Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2229-2268.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ma, Xiao & Nakab, Alejandro & Zhang, Yiran, 2023. "Skill Acquisition and the Gains from Trade: A Cross-country Quantitative Analysis," MPRA Paper 117808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Xin Wang, 2022. "Multinational firms and human capital investment: A dynamic knowledge‐capital model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 1564-1586, May.
    3. Li, Bingjing, 2018. "Export expansion, skill acquisition and industry specialization: evidence from china," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 346-361.
    4. Faqin Lin, 2022. "Agriculture exports, child labor and youth education: Evidence from 68 developing countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 490-513, May.
    5. Lin, Faqin & Long, Cheryl X., 2020. "The impact of globalization on youth education: Empirical evidence from China's WTO accession," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 820-839.
    6. Li, Bingjing & Ma, Lin, 2022. "JUE insight: Migration, transportation infrastructure, and the spatial transmission of COVID-19 in China," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    7. Mingzhi Xu, 2020. "Globalization, the skill premium, and income distribution: the role of selection into entrepreneurship," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(3), pages 633-668, August.
    8. Liu, Chen & Ma, Xiao, 2018. "China's Export Surge and the New Margins of Trade," MPRA Paper 103970, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2020.
    9. Kevin Williams, 2023. "Does trade shape educational decisions? The role of initial schooling," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3631-3663, October.
    10. Liu, Maggie Y., 2023. "How does globalization affect educational attainment? Evidence from China," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 138-159.
    11. Liu, Chen & Ma, Xiao, 2023. "Migration, tariffs, and China's export surge," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    12. Ma, Xiao & Nakab, Alejandro, 2020. "Comparative Advantage and Human Capital: A Cross-country Quantitative Analysis," MPRA Paper 110267, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2020.
    13. Blanchard, Emily J. & Olney, William W., 2017. "Globalization and human capital investment: Export composition drives educational attainment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 165-183.
    14. Nicolas Morales, 2019. "High-Skill Migration, Multinational Companies, and the Location of Economic Activity," Working Paper 19-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    15. Hsu, Wen-Tai & Ma, Lin, 2021. "Urbanization policy and economic development: A quantitative analysis of China's differential hukou reforms," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    16. Xu, Yang & Yang, Xi, 2021. "Access to ports and the welfare gains from domestic transportation infrastructure," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    17. Zhang, Junsen & Zhou, Kang, 2023. "Quota removal, destination-specific export shocks, and skill acquisition in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    18. César, Andrés & Falcone, Guillermo & Gasparini, Leonardo, 2021. "Costs and benefits of trade shocks: Evidence from Chilean local labor markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    19. Lou, Jing & Li, Jie, 2022. "Export expansion and intergenerational education mobility: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    20. Cao, Huoqing & Chen, Shiyi & Xi, Xican, 2023. "Aging, migration, and structural transformation in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Educational Sciences; International Trade and Trade Rules; Labor Markets; Employment and Unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9738. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.