IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/126771.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Roads to development? Urbanization without growth in Zambia

Author

Listed:
  • Peng, Cong
  • Wang, Yao
  • Chen, Wenfan

Abstract

This study explores the impacts of road improvements in a country characterized by "urbanization without growth". Our analysis reveals that, although road upgrades increase population growth, they do not significantly advance economic development and tend to worsen living conditions. Utilizing a combination of empirical evidence and a spatial equilibrium model, we identify that constrained industrial capacities and congestion from high population density limit the efficacy of road development policies in enhancing GDP and overall welfare. Our results also indicate that strategically targeting road placement in regions with higher economic productivity could yield better economic outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng, Cong & Wang, Yao & Chen, Wenfan, 2024. "Roads to development? Urbanization without growth in Zambia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 126771, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:126771
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/126771/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gibbons, Stephen & Lyytikäinen, Teemu & Overman, Henry G. & Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa, 2019. "New road infrastructure: The effects on firms," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 35-50.
    2. Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2017. "Quantitative Spatial Economics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 21-58, September.
    3. Anjali Adukia & Sam Asher & Paul Novosad, 2020. "Educational Investment Responses to Economic Opportunity: Evidence from Indian Road Construction," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 348-376, January.
    4. Dave Donaldson, 2018. "Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of Transportation Infrastructure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 899-934, April.
    5. Glaeser, Edward L. & Kahn, Matthew E., 2010. "The greenness of cities: Carbon dioxide emissions and urban development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 404-418, May.
    6. J. Vernon Henderson & Matthew A. Turner, 2020. "Urbanization in the Developing World: Too Early or Too Slow?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 150-173, Summer.
    7. Simonovska, Ina & Waugh, Michael E., 2014. "The elasticity of trade: Estimates and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 34-50.
    8. Dave Donaldson & Richard Hornbeck, 2016. "Railroads and American Economic Growth: A "Market Access" Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 799-858.
    9. Bryan, Gharad & Morten, Melanie, 2019. "The aggregate productivity effects of internal migration: evidence from Indonesia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88177, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Treb Allen & Costas Arkolakis, 2014. "Trade and the Topography of the Spatial Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(3), pages 1085-1140.
    11. Trevor Tombe & Xiaodong Zhu, 2019. "Trade, Migration, and Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis of China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1843-1872, May.
    12. Cuberes, David & Desmet, Klaus & Rappaport, Jordan, 2021. "Urban growth shadows," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    13. Chris Edmond & Virgiliu Midrigan & Daniel Yi Xu, 2015. "Competition, Markups, and the Gains from International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3183-3221, October.
    14. Douglas Gollin & Remi Jedwab & Dietrich Vollrath, 2016. "Urbanization with and without industrialization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 35-70, March.
    15. Glaeser, Edward & Henderson, J. Vernon, 2017. "Urban economics for the developing World: An introduction," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-5.
    16. Chandra, Amitabh & Thompson, Eric, 2000. "Does public infrastructure affect economic activity?: Evidence from the rural interstate highway system," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 457-490, July.
    17. Guy Michaels, 2008. "The Effect of Trade on the Demand for Skill: Evidence from the Interstate Highway System," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 683-701, November.
    18. Adam Storeygard, 2016. "Farther on down the Road: Transport Costs, Trade and Urban Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(3), pages 1263-1295.
    19. Gibson, John & Olivia, Susan & Boe-Gibson, Geua & Li, Chao, 2021. "Which night lights data should we use in economics, and where?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    20. Baum-Snow, Nathaniel & Henderson, J. Vernon & Turner, Matthew A. & Zhang, Qinghua & Brandt, Loren, 2020. "Does investment in national highways help or hurt hinterland city growth?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    21. Maureen Cropper & Charles Griffiths & Muthukumara Mani, 1999. "Roads, Population Pressures, and Deforestation in Thailand, 1976-1989," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 75(1), pages 58-73.
    22. Banerjee, Abhijit & Duflo, Esther & Qian, Nancy, 2020. "On the road: Access to transportation infrastructure and economic growth in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    23. Dave Donaldson & Adam Storeygard, 2016. "The View from Above: Applications of Satellite Data in Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 171-198, Fall.
    24. Gaurav Khanna & Wenquan Liang & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Ran Song, 2021. "The Productivity Consequences of Pollution-Induced Migration in China," NBER Working Papers 28401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Seema Jayachandran, 2009. "Air Quality and Early-Life Mortality: Evidence from Indonesia’s Wildfires," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(4).
    26. Benjamin Marx & Thomas Stoker & Tavneet Suri, 2013. "The Economics of Slums in the Developing World," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 187-210, Fall.
    27. J. Vernon Henderson & Adam Storeygard & David N. Weil, 2012. "Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 994-1028, April.
    28. Edward L. Glaeser, 2014. "A World Of Cities: The Causes And Consequences Of Urbanization In Poorer Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(5), pages 1154-1199, October.
    29. Gertler, Paul J. & Gonzalez-Navarro, Marco & Gračner, Tadeja & Rothenberg, Alexander D., 2024. "Road maintenance and local economic development: Evidence from Indonesia’s highways," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    30. Zarate Vasquez,Roman David, 2022. "Spatial Misallocation,Informality, and Transit Improvements : Evidence from Mexico City," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9990, The World Bank.
    31. Klaus Deininger & Bart Minten, 2002. "Determinants of Deforestation and the Economics of Protection: An Application to Mexico," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(4), pages 943-960.
    32. Marshall Burke & Anne Driscoll & David Lobell & Stefano Ermon, 2020. "Using Satellite Imagery to Understand and Promote Sustainable Development," NBER Working Papers 27879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Sam Asher & Paul Novosad, 2020. "Rural Roads and Local Economic Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(3), pages 797-823, March.
    34. Kate Baldwin, 2013. "Why Vote with the Chief? Political Connections and Public Goods Provision in Zambia," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(4), pages 794-809, October.
    35. Venables, Anthony J., 2017. "Breaking into tradables: Urban form and urban function in a developing city," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 88-97.
    36. Jingting Fan, 2019. "Internal Geography, Labor Mobility, and the Distributional Impacts of Trade," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 252-288, July.
    37. Chen, Ying & Henderson, J. Vernon & Cai, Wei, 2017. "Political favoritism in China’s capital markets and its effect on city sizes," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 69-87.
    38. Fritz Kleinschroth & Nadine Laporte & William F. Laurance & Scott J. Goetz & Jaboury Ghazoul, 2019. "Road expansion and persistence in forests of the Congo Basin," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 628-634, July.
    39. Henderson, J. Vernon & Storeygard, Adam & Deichmann, Uwe, 2017. "Has climate change driven urbanization in Africa?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 60-82.
    40. Benjamin Marx, 2018. "Elections as Incentives: Project Completion and Visibility in African Politics," Working Papers hal-03873801, HAL.
    41. Chun-Chung Au & J. Vernon Henderson, 2006. "Are Chinese Cities Too Small?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(3), pages 549-576.
    42. Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson & Cory Smith, 2016. "Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from 1.7 Million Fields around the World," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 205-248.
    43. Nathaniel Baum-Snow, 2007. "Did Highways Cause Suburbanization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 775-805.
    44. Sam Asher & Paul Novosad, 2020. "Rural Roads and Local Economic Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(3), pages 797-823, March.
    45. Tobias G. Tiecke & Xianming Liu & Amy Zhang & Andreas Gros & Nan Li & Gregory Yetman & Talip Kilic & Siobhan Murray & Brian Blankespoor & Espen B. Prydz & Hai-Anh H. Dang, 2017. "Mapping the World Population One Building at a Time," World Bank Publications - Reports 33700, The World Bank Group.
    46. Fay, Marianne & Opal, Charlotte, 2000. "Urbanization without growth : a not-so-uncommon phenomenon," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2412, The World Bank.
    47. Ghose,Devaki, 2021. "Trade, Internal Migration, and Human Capital : Who Gains from India’s IT Boom?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9738, The World Bank.
    48. Southgate, Douglas & Sierra, Rodrigo & Brown, Lawrence, 1991. "The causes of tropical deforestation in Ecuador: A statistical analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(9), pages 1145-1151, September.
    49. Gharad Bryan & Melanie Morten, 2019. "The Aggregate Productivity Effects of Internal Migration: Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2229-2268.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yoshifumi Konishi & Akari Ono, 2024. "Do Winners Win More from Transport Megaprojects? Evidence from the Great Seto Bridge in Japan," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2024-018, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    2. Gertler, Paul J. & Gonzalez-Navarro, Marco & Gračner, Tadeja & Rothenberg, Alexander D., 2024. "Road maintenance and local economic development: Evidence from Indonesia’s highways," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Xu, Yang & Yang, Xi, 2021. "Access to ports and the welfare gains from domestic transportation infrastructure," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Gertler, Paul J & Gonzalez-Navarro, Marco & Gracner, Tadeja & Rothenberg, Alexander, 2023. "Road Maintenance and Local Economic Development," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt38m633q0, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    5. Fenske, James & Kala, Namrata & Wei, Jinlin, 2023. "Railways and cities in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    6. He, Guojun & Xie, Yang & Zhang, Bing, 2020. "Expressways, GDP, and the environment: The case of China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. Redding, Stephen, 2020. "Trade and Geography," CEPR Discussion Papers 15268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Stef Proost & Jacques-François Thisse, 2019. "What Can Be Learned from Spatial Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 57(3), pages 575-643, September.
    9. Ma, Lin & Tang, Yang, 2024. "The distributional impacts of transportation networks in China," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    10. Wu, Mingqin & Yu, Linhui & Zhang, Junsen, 2023. "Road expansion, allocative efficiency, and pro-competitive effect of transport infrastructure: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    11. Egger, Peter H. & Loumeau, Gabriel & Loumeau, Nicole, 2023. "China's dazzling transport-infrastructure growth: Measurement and effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    12. Stephan Heblich & Stephen J Redding & Daniel M Sturm, 2020. "The Making of the Modern Metropolis: Evidence from London," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(4), pages 2059-2133.
    13. Bogart, Dan & You, Xuesheng & Alvarez-Palau, Eduard J. & Satchell, Max & Shaw-Taylor, Leigh, 2022. "Railways, divergence, and structural change in 19th century England and Wales," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    14. Li, Bingjing & Ma, Lin, 2022. "JUE insight: Migration, transportation infrastructure, and the spatial transmission of COVID-19 in China," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    15. Gáfaro, Margarita & Pellegrina, Heitor S., 2022. "Trade, farmers’ heterogeneity, and agricultural productivity: Evidence from Colombia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    16. Rémi Jedwab & Adam Storeygard, 2022. "The Average and Heterogeneous Effects of Transportation Investments: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa 1960–2010," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 1-38.
    17. Brooks, Leah & Gendron-Carrier, Nicolas & Rua, Gisela, 2021. "The local impact of containerization," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    18. Redding, Stephen J. & Turner, Matthew A., 2015. "Transportation Costs and the Spatial Organization of Economic Activity," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1339-1398, Elsevier.
    19. Luke Heath Milsom, 2023. "Moving OpportunityLocal Connectivity and Spatial Inequality," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 2303, CEPREMAP.
    20. Stephan Fretz & Raphaël Parchet & Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 2022. "Highways, Market Access and Spatial Sorting," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(643), pages 1011-1036.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    road improvements; urbanization; industrialization; quantitative spatial model; satellite imagery; africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • R4 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:126771. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.