Instrumental variables regressions with honestly uncertain exclusion restrictions
The validity of instrumental variables (IV) regression models depends crucially on fundamentally untestable exclusion restrictions. Typically exclusion restrictions are assumed to hold exactly in the relevant population, yet in many empirical applications there are reasonable prior grounds to doubt their literal truth. In this paper I show how to incorporate prior uncertainty about the validity of the exclusion restriction into linear IV models, and explore the consequences for inference. In particular I provide a mapping from prior uncertainty about the exclusion restriction into increased uncertainty about parameters of interest. Moderate prior uncertainty about exclusion restrictions can lead to a substantial loss of precision in estimates of structural parameters. This loss of precision is relatively more important in situations where IV estimates appear to be more precise, for example in larger samples or with stronger instruments. The author illustrates these points using several prominent recent empirical papers that use linear IV models.
|Date of creation:||01 May 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 1996.
"Financial Dependence and Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
5758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Small, Dylan S., 2007. "Sensitivity Analysis for Instrumental Variables Regression With Overidentifying Restrictions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 1049-1058, September.
- Daniel Berkowitz & Mehmet Caner & Ying Fang, 2013.
"Are "Nearly Exogenous" Instruments Reliable?,"
2013-10-14, Working Paper.
- Mehmet Caner & Dan Berkowitz & Ying Fang, 2006. "Are Nearly Exogenous Instruments Reliable?," Working Papers 207, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2006.
- Daniel Berkowitz & Mehmet Caner & Ying Fang, 2006. "Are "Nearly Exogenous" Instruments Reliable?," Working Papers 219, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2006.
- Hoogerheide, Lennart & Kleibergen, Frank & van Dijk, Herman K., 2007.
"Natural conjugate priors for the instrumental variables regression model applied to the Angrist-Krueger data,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 63-103, May.
- Hoogerheide, L.F. & Kleibergen, F.R. & van Dijk, H.K., 2006. "Natural conjugate priors for the instrumental variables regression model applied to the Angrist-Krueger data," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-02, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
- Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 1999.
"Trade Policy and Economic Growth: a Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence,"
9912, Economic Research Forum, revised Apr 1999.
- Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rodríguez, Francisco & Rodrik, Dani, 1999. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Sceptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2143, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael P. Murray, 2006. "Avoiding Invalid Instruments and Coping with Weak Instruments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 111-132, Fall.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silane & Andrei Shleifer, 2004.
"Do Institutions Cause Growth?,"
NBER Working Papers
10568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001.
"The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2000. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 7771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Poirier, Dale J., 1998. "Revising Beliefs In Nonidentified Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(04), pages 483-509, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4632. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.