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Corruption, composition of capital flows, and currency crises

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  • Shang-Jin Wei

Abstract

Crony capitalism and international creditors'self-fulfilling expectations are often suggested as rival explanations for currency crises. A possible link between the two has not been explored. The author shows one channel through which crony capitalism can increase the chance of a currency/financial crisis by altering the composition of capital inflows. Using data on bilateral foreign direct investment and bilateral bank loans, the author finds clear evidence that in corrupt countries the composition of capital inflows is relatively light in foreign direct investment. Earlier studies indicated that a country with a capital inflow structure is more likely to run into a currency crisis down the road (partly through international creditors'self-fulfilling expectations). Therefore, crony capitalism, through its effect on the composition of a country's capital inflows, makes the country more vulnerable to currency crises brought about by self-fulfilling expectations. Corruption may also weaken domestic financial supervision, with a subsequent deterioration in the quality in banks'and firms'balance sheets.

Suggested Citation

  • Shang-Jin Wei, 2000. "Corruption, composition of capital flows, and currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2429, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2429
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    Cited by:

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    3. Farida, Mohamad & Ahmadi-Esfahani, Fredoun Z., 2006. "Corruption and economic development: A critical review of literature," 2006 Conference (50th), February 8-10, 2006, Sydney, Australia 139727, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    4. Jae-Hyung Lee, 2003. "Investigating a “New Paradigm†on Strategy against Corruption in the Private Sector," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 137-159, September.
    5. Papaioannou, Elias, 2009. "What drives international financial flows? Politics, institutions and other determinants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 269-281, March.
    6. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2008. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 347-368, May.
    7. Mina, Wasseem, 2015. "Political risk guarantees and capital flows: The role of bilateral investment treaties," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-38.
    8. Aysun, Uluc & Honig, Adam, 2011. "Bankruptcy costs, liability dollarization, and vulnerability to sudden stops," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 201-211, July.
    9. Simplice A Asongu, 2015. "A Good Turn Deserves Another: Political Stability, Corruption and Corruption-Control," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2037-2048.
    10. Straub, Stephane, 2008. "Opportunism, corruption and the multinational firm's mode of entry," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 245-263, March.
    11. Eswar S. Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei & M. Ayhan Kose, 2007. "Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 457-516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. John McArthur & Francis Teal, 2002. "Corruption and firm performance in Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-10, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    13. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2007. "Capital Flows in a Globalized World: The Role of Policies and Institutions," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 19-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Margaret S. McMillan & Andrew R. Waxman, 2007. "Profit Sharing Between Governments and Multinationals in Natural Resource Extraction: Evidence From a Firm-Level Panel," NBER Working Papers 13332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. repec:pdn:wpaper:79 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Wasseem Mina & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez, 2006. "Contract Enforcement, Institutional Stability, and the Level and Maturity of International Debt," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0617, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    18. Noha Emara, 2012. "The Welfare Effects of Inflation Volatility and Institutions," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 4(1), pages 5-27, January.
    19. Bai, Chong-en & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2001. "The quality of bureaucracy and capital account policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2575, The World Bank.
    20. Peter Ignatiev, 2004. "Theoretical Models of Financial Crises," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 110-130.
    21. Mr. Norbert Funke & Mr. Faisal Ahmed & Mr. Rabah Arezki, 2005. "The Composition of Capital Flows: Is South Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 2005/040, International Monetary Fund.

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