From Disparity to Equality : Strategic Targeting to Close Gender Gaps in Business Upgrading Programs

Business upgrading programs in developing economies often generate substantial gains for male entrepreneurs but limited average impacts for women, raising concerns about both efficiency and equity. This study develops a Program Readiness Scorecard (PRS)—a transparent, scalable tool based on 10 observable factors capturing both entrepreneurial resources and capabilities—to identify those most likely to benefit from such programs. Using pooled experimental data from firms in Uganda, South Africa, and Mexico, this paper shows that without targeting, firms led by men experience large and statistically significant gains, while those led by women have near zero average returns. Targeting that screens out entrepreneurs with the lowest scores on the PRS irrespective of gender improves women’s outcomes but leaves a significant gap. Applying a higher PRS threshold—specifically, restricting eligibility to women in the top quartile of the PRS distribution—closes the gap entirely, as women with high scores achieve returns that are statistically indistinguishable from men’s. These results are robust to multiple sensitivity checks. The findings have two broad policy implications. First, targeting based on the PRS can strengthen program outcomes for women-led firms while also identifying the cohort in need of remedial support prior to joining high-value initiatives. Second, beyond gender-focused programs, the PRS can be applied in a wider range of settings where scarce program resources must be directed toward enterprises with the greatest potential for sustained growth.