IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/10542.html

Evaluation of Educational Loss in Europe and Central Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Patrinos,Harry Anthony
  • Jakubowski,Maciej Jan
  • Gajderowicz,Tomasz Janusz

Abstract

To what extent has the learning progress of school-aged children slowed during the COVID-19 pandemic A pre-registered analysis of the first international assessment to be published since the pandemic is conducted to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on student reading. The effect of closures on achievement is modeled by predicting the deviation of the most recent results from a linear trend in reading achievement using data from all rounds using data from 28 countries in Europe and Central Asia. Reading scores declined by an average of 20 percent of a standard deviation, equivalent to just less than a year of schooling. Losses are significantly larger for students in schools that faced relatively longer closures. While there are no significant differences by sex, it is shown that lower-achieving students experienced much larger losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrinos,Harry Anthony & Jakubowski,Maciej Jan & Gajderowicz,Tomasz Janusz, 2023. "Evaluation of Educational Loss in Europe and Central Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10542, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10542
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099532508082317537/pdf/IDU0dd8d4c3d07d0c0477a0993e0aabe17fd627e.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Noam Angrist & Simeon Djankov & Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Harry A. Patrinos, 2021. "Measuring human capital using global learning data," Nature, Nature, vol. 592(7854), pages 403-408, April.
    2. Michèle Belot & Dinand Webbink, 2010. "Do Teacher Strikes Harm Educational Attainment of Students?," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(4), pages 391-406, December.
    3. Agostinelli, Francesco & Doepke, Matthias & Sorrenti, Giuseppe & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2022. "When the great equalizer shuts down: Schools, peers, and parents in pandemic times," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    4. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Jonah E. Rockoff, 2014. "Measuring the Impacts of Teachers II: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2633-2679, September.
    5. Dan Goldhaber & Thomas J. Kane & Andrew McEachin & Emily Morton & Tyler Patterson & Douglas O. Staiger, 2022. "The Consequences of Remote and Hybrid Instruction During the Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 30010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jakubowski, Maciej & Gajderowicz, Tomasz & Patrinos, Harry Anthony, 2023. "Global learning loss in student achievement: First estimates using comparable reading scores," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    7. João Pedro & Amer Hasan & Diana Goldemberg & Koen Geven & Syedah Aroob Iqbal, 2021. "Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes: A Set of Global Estimates [Tackling Inequity in Education during and after COVID-19]," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 1-40.
    8. Bastian A. Betthäuser & Anders M. Bach-Mortensen & Per Engzell, 2023. "A systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence on learning during the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 7(3), pages 375-385, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Romer & Roberto Samaniego & Remi Jedwab & Asif M. Islam, 2025. "Scars of pandemics from lost schooling and experience: aggregate implications and gender differences through the lens of COVID-19," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 1-47, March.
    2. Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Oseni, Gbemisola & Abanokova, Kseniya, 2025. "Educational inequalities during COVID-19: Results from longitudinal surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Yorke, Louise & Araya, Mesele & Chuta, Nardos & Demisse, Abebech & Rose, Pauline, 2025. "The interaction between learning, mental health and wellbeing during the COVID-19 pandemic: A longitudinal mixed-methods study in Ethiopia," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    4. Lorenzo Alderighi & Rosario M. Ballatore & Marco Tonello, 2026. "Hidden Dropout: Secondary Education (Unseen) Failure in Pandemic Times," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(1), pages 69-99.
    5. Shinsuke Asakawa & Fumio Ohtake, 2021. "Impact of Temporary School Closure Due to COVID-19 on the Academic Achievement of Elementary School Students," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 21-14, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    6. Gajderowicz, Tomasz & Jakubowski, Maciej & Kennedy, Alec & Christrup Kjeldsen, Christian & Patrinos, Harry Anthony & Strietholt, Rolf, 2024. "The Learning Crisis: Three Years After Covid-19," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1543, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    7. Werner, Katharina & Woessmann, Ludger, 2021. "The Legacy of COVID-19 in Education," IZA Discussion Papers 14796, IZA Network @ LISER.
    8. Jo Blanden & Matthias Doepke & Jan Stuhler, 2022. "Educational Inequality," Papers 2204.04701, arXiv.org.
    9. Etienne Dagorn & Elena Claudia Meroni & Léonard Moulin, 2025. "Shifting preferences: COVID-19 and higher education application," Post-Print hal-05198490, HAL.
    10. Bastian A. Betthäuser & Anders M. Bach-Mortensen & Per Engzell, 2023. "A systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence on learning during the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 7(3), pages 375-385, March.
    11. Patrinos, Harry Anthony & Jakubowski, Maciej & Gajderowicz, Tomasz, 2025. "Evaluation of achievement change in Egypt using PIRLS data," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    12. Dela Cruz, Nina Ashley & Adona, Ann Jillian & Molato-Gayares, Rhea & Park, Albert, 2025. "Learning loss and recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review of evidence," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    13. Jakubowski,Maciej Jan & Gajderowicz,Tomasz Janusz & Patrinos,Harry Anthony, 2024. "COVID-19, School Closures, and Student Learning Outcomes : New Global Evidence from PISA," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10666, The World Bank.
    14. Patrinos,Harry Anthony, 2023. "The Longer Students Were Out of School, the Less They Learned," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10420, The World Bank.
    15. Lindsey Devers Basileo & Merewyn Elizabeth Lyons & Michael David Toth, 2024. "Leading Indicators of Academic Achievement: Investigating the Predictive Validity of an Observation Instrument in a Large District," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(2), pages 21582440241, June.
    16. Charlene Marie Kalenkoski & Sabrina Wulff Pabilonia, 2025. "Teen social interactions and well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 357-404, March.
    17. Harbatkin, Erica & Strunk, Katharine O. & McIlwain, Aliyah, 2023. "School turnaround in a pandemic: An examination of the outsized implications of COVID-19 on low-performing turnaround schools, districts, and their communities," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    18. Singh, Abhijeet & Romero, Mauricio & Muralidharan, Karthik, 2024. "COVID-19 Learning loss and recovery," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt3jj1b8hb, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    19. Kuzmanic, Danilo & Valenzuela, Juan Pablo & Claro, Susana & Canales, Andrea & Cerda, Daniela & Undurraga, Eduardo A., 2023. "Socioeconomic disparities in the reopening of schools during the pandemic in Chile," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    20. Samuel Berlinski & Michele Giannola & Alessandro Toppeta, 2026. "Effective Families or Effective Schools? Experimental Evidence on Fostering Children's Numeracy," CESifo Working Paper Series 12563, CESifo.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10542. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.