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Are Cigarette Bans Really Good Economic Policy?

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Abstract

We investigate the quarterly relationship between the quantity of cigarettes sold, real disposable income per capita, and the relative price level of cigarettes in Canada. Careful attention is paid to the non-stationarity of the data and the dynamic specification of the model. We conclude that cigarette demand is extremely insensitive to price and income changes. This is evidence of the large consumer surplus smokers enjoy and the large revenue increasing potential of a cigarette tax increase policy, as opposed to cigarette bans.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank S. Reinhardt & David E.A. Giles, 1999. "Are Cigarette Bans Really Good Economic Policy?," Econometrics Working Papers 9903, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  • Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:9903
    Note: ISSN 1485-6441
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    2. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    3. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hylleberg, S. & Lee, H. S., 1993. "The Japanese consumption function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 275-298.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S. & Noh, Jaesum, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series : Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 415-442, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dritsakis, Nikolaos, 2003. "Forecasting Cigarette Consumption in Greece: An empirical investigation with cointegration analysis," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 4(2), August.
    2. Gruber, Jonathan & Sen, Anindya & Stabile, Mark, 2003. "Estimating price elasticities when there is smuggling: the sensitivity of smoking to price in Canada," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 821-842, September.
    3. Deluna, Roperto & maneja, Kimbely, 2015. "The Effect of Sin Tax and Anti-Smoking Campaign in Regulating Cigarette Smokers in Davao City, Philippines," MPRA Paper 68801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Auld, M. Christopher & Grootendorst, Paul, 2004. "An empirical analysis of milk addiction," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1117-1133, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cigarettes; exise tax; consumer surplus;

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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