IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/vic/vicewp/9903.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are Cigarette Bans Really Good Economic Policy?

Author

Abstract

We investigate the quarterly relationship between the quantity of cigarettes sold, real disposable income per capita, and the relative price level of cigarettes in Canada. Careful attention is paid to the non-stationarity of the data and the dynamic specification of the model. We conclude that cigarette demand is extremely insensitive to price and income changes. This is evidence of the large consumer surplus smokers enjoy and the large revenue increasing potential of a cigarette tax increase policy, as opposed to cigarette bans.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank S. Reinhardt & David E.A. Giles, 1999. "Are Cigarette Bans Really Good Economic Policy?," Econometrics Working Papers 9903, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    • Handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:9903
    Note: ISSN 1485-6441
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.uvic.ca/socialsciences/economics/_assets/docs/econometrics/ewp9903.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hylleberg, S. & Lee, H. S., 1993. "The Japanese consumption function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 275-298.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    5. Ghysels, Eric & Lee, Hahn S. & Noh, Jaesum, 1994. "Testing for unit roots in seasonal time series : Some theoretical extensions and a Monte Carlo investigation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 415-442, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dell’Anno, Roberto & Davidescu, Adriana AnaMaria, 2019. "Estimating shadow economy and tax evasion in Romania. A comparison by different estimation approaches," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 130-149.
    2. Nikolay Gospodinov & Ian Irvine, 2005. "A `long march' perspective on tobacco use in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 366-393, May.
    3. Dritsakis, Nikolaos, 2003. "Forecasting Cigarette Consumption in Greece: An empirical investigation with cointegration analysis," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 4(2), pages 1-15, August.
    4. Deluna, Roperto & maneja, Kimbely, 2015. "The Effect of Sin Tax and Anti-Smoking Campaign in Regulating Cigarette Smokers in Davao City, Philippines," MPRA Paper 68801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Auld, M. Christopher & Grootendorst, Paul, 2004. "An empirical analysis of milk addiction," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1117-1133, November.
    6. Rajeev Goel, 2004. "Cigarette demand in Canada and the US-Canadian cigarette smuggling," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(9), pages 537-540.
    7. Gruber, Jonathan & Sen, Anindya & Stabile, Mark, 2003. "Estimating price elasticities when there is smuggling: the sensitivity of smoking to price in Canada," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 821-842, September.
    8. Rajeev K. Goel & Michael A. Nelson, 2006. "The Effectiveness of Anti‐Smoking Legislation: A Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 325-355, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, June.
    2. Smith, Jeremy & Otero, Jesus, 1997. "Structural breaks and seasonal integration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 13-19, September.
    3. Granger, C. W. J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 1995. "Systematic sampling, temporal aggregation, seasonal adjustment, and cointegration theory and evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 357-369.
    4. Domenico Depalo, 2009. "A seasonal unit-root test with Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(3), pages 422-438, September.
    5. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911.
    6. Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes & Antonio Montanes, 2005. "The Behavior Of Hegy Tests For Quarterly Time Series With Seasonal Mean Shifts," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 83-108.
    7. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2005. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Trinity Economics Papers tep20021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    8. Jacek Kotlowski, 2005. "Money and prices in the Polish economy. Seasonal cointegration approach," Working Papers 20, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    9. Bardsen, G. & Klovland, J.T., 1990. "Finding The Rigth Nominal Anchor: The Cointegration Of Money, Credit And Nominal Income In Norway," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 350, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    10. Beenstock, Michael & Reingewertz, Yaniv & Paldor, Nathan, 2016. "Testing the historic tracking of climate models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1234-1246.
    11. Younes Ben Zaied & Marie Estelle Binet, 2015. "Modelling seasonality in residential water demand: the case of Tunisia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(19), pages 1983-1996, April.
    12. PHILIP E.T. LEWIS & GARRY A. MacDONALD, 1993. "Testing for Equilibrium in the Australian Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(3), pages 295-304, September.
    13. da Silva Lopes, Artur C. B., 2001. "The robustness of tests for seasonal differencing to structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 173-179, May.
    14. Hernán Rincón, 1999. "Testing the Short-Long-Run Exchange Rate Effects on Trade Balance: The Case of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 120, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Zanias, George P., 1999. "Seasonality and spatial integration in agricultural (product) markets," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 253-262, May.
    16. Lof, Marten & Hans Franses, Philip, 2001. "On forecasting cointegrated seasonal time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 607-621.
    17. Philip Hans Franses & Robert M. Kunst, 1999. "On the Role of Seasonal Intercepts in Seasonal Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(3), pages 409-433, August.
    18. Ghysels, Eric & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "The effect of linear filters on dynamic time series with structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 69-97, January.
    19. L. A. Gil-Alana & P. M. Robinson, 2001. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 95-114.
    20. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working papers 136, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cigarettes; exise tax; consumer surplus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vic:vicewp:9903. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kali Moon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/devicca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.