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Youth Unemployment and Retirement of the Elderly: the Case of Italy

  • Agar Brugiavini


    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari)

  • Franco Peracchi

    (University of Rome “Tor Vergata”)

This paper shows that the “lump of labor” assumption fails in Italy. The direct relationship between the unemployment rate of the young and the labor force participation of the old is pro-cyclical, i.e. a higher labor force participation of the old is related to a lower unemployment rate of the young. Hence both vary with the business cycle. In order to overcome endogeneity problems in explaining unemployment of the young, we resort to a simulated variable: “the inducement to retire”, which is constructed by simulating the social security benefits. We related the unemployment rate of the young to this incentive measure and find that a higher inducement to retire is associated to a higher unemployment rate – quite the opposite of the “young-in-old-out” story.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari" in its series Working Papers with number 2008_45.

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Length: 54
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2008_45
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  1. Agar Brugiavini & Franco Peracchi, 2007. "Fiscal Implications of Pension Reforms in Italy," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Fiscal Implications of Reform, pages 253-294 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bertola, Giuseppe, 1990. "Job security, employment and wages," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 851-879, June.
  3. Agar Brugiavini & Franco Peracchi, 2003. "Social Security Wealth and Retirement Decisions in Italy," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 17(SpecialIs), pages 79-114, 08.
  4. Tito Boeri & Pietro Garibaldi, 2007. "Two Tier Reforms of Employment Protection: a Honeymoon Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(521), pages 357-385, 06.
  5. Graziella Caselli & Franco Peracchi & Elisabetta Barbi & Rosa Maria Lipsi, 2002. "Differential Mortality And The Design Of The Italian System Of Public Pensions," CHILD Working Papers wp07_02, CHILD - Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic economics - ITALY.
  6. Bentolila, Samuel & Bertola, Giuseppe, 1990. "Firing Costs and Labour Demand: How Bad Is Eurosclerosis?," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 381-402, July.
  7. Agar Brugiavini & Franco Peracchi, 2004. "Micro-Modeling of Retirement Behavior in Italy," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Micro-Estimation, pages 345-398 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Floro Ernesto Caroleo & Fernanda Mazzotta, 1998. "Youth Unemployment and Youth Employment Policies in Italy," CELPE Discussion Papers 45, CELPE - Centre of Labour Economics and Economic Policy, University of Salerno, Italy.
  9. Gruber, Jonathan & Wise, David A. (ed.), 2004. "Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226310183.
  10. Michele Boldrin & Juan J. Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno & Franco Peracchi, 1999. "The future of pensions in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 287-320, October.
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