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How Do the Effects of Local Growth on Employment Rates Vary With Initial Labor Market Conditions




This paper examines how the effects of increased employment growth on a metropolitan area’s employment to population ratio varies with the initial tightness of the metropolitan area’s labor market. This examination is relevant to evaluating the benefits of local economic development policies in different metropolitan areas. Much of the benefits of such policies are in higher employment rates. The empirical estimates suggest that the effectiveness of employment growth in increasing the employment to population ratio is lower in metropolitan areas with “tight” labor markets. In addition, some estimates suggest that growth has the greatest long-run effects on the employment to population ratio in metropolitan areas with some looseness in labor market conditions, compared to metropolitan areas with the most tight or most loose labor market conditions. Growth pays off the most for metropolitan areas that have above-average labor market problems, but not too much above average.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy J. Bartik, 2006. "How Do the Effects of Local Growth on Employment Rates Vary With Initial Labor Market Conditions," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 09-148, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:09-148

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    2. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle, November.
    3. William H. Oakland & William A. Testa, 1996. "State-local business taxation and the benefits principle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jan, pages 2-19.
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    More about this item


    local growth; employment; economic development; metropolitan; tight labor market; employment to population ratio; bartik;

    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers


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