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It's still 2%: evidence on convergence from 116 years of the US States panel data

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  • Etsuro Shioji

Abstract

A new debate over the speed of convergence in per capita income across economies is going on. Cross sectional estimates support the idea of slow convergence of about two percent per year. Panel data estimates support the idea of fast convergence of five, ten or even twenty percent per year. This paper shows that, if you ``do it right'', even the panel data estimation method yields the result of slow convergence of about two percent per year.

Suggested Citation

  • Etsuro Shioji, 1997. "It's still 2%: evidence on convergence from 116 years of the US States panel data," Economics Working Papers 236, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:236
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. de la Fuente, Angel, 2002. "On the sources of convergence: A close look at the Spanish regions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 569-599, March.
    3. Etsuro Shioji, 1997. "Convergence in panel data: Evidence from the skipping estimation," Economics Working Papers 235, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    4. Nerlove, Marc, 1971. "Further Evidence on the Estimation of Dynamic Economic Relations from a Time Series of Cross Sections," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(2), pages 359-382, March.
    5. Canova, Fabio & Marcet, Albert, 1995. "The Poor Stay Poor: Non-Convergence Across Countries and Regions," CEPR Discussion Papers 1265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Malcolm Knight & Norman Loayza & Delano Villanueva, 1993. "Testing the Neoclassical Theory of Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(3), pages 512-541, September.
    7. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. "Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-389, September.
    8. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    9. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    10. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cuerva, Maria C., 2012. "Evolución de la productividad agraria en las regiones europeas: un análisis de convergencia con métodos de panel dinámicos," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 12(1).
    2. ?gel de la Fuente, "undated". "Convergence Across Countries And Regions: Theory And Empirics," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 447.00, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    3. Angel de la Fuente, "undated". "What kind of regional convergence?," Studies on the Spanish Economy 07, FEDEA.
    4. Burnett, J. Wesley, 2016. "Club convergence and clustering of U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 62-84.
    5. Dedák, István & Dombi, Ákos, 2009. "Konvergencia és növekedési ütem
      [Convergence and growth rate]      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 19-45.
    6. Adriana Di Liberto & James Symons, 2003. "Some Econometric Issues in Convergence Regressions," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 293-307, June.
    7. Casto Martín Montero Kuscevic & Marco Antonio del Río Rivera, 2013. "Convergencia en Bolivia: un enfoque espacial con datos de panel dinámicos," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO, August.
    8. Sašo Polanec, 2004. "Convergence at Last? : Evidence from Transition Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 55-80, July.
    9. Boris Branisa & Adriana Cardozo, 2009. "Revisiting the Regional Growth Convergence Debate in Colombia Using Income Indicators," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 194, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research, revised 21 Aug 2009.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    income convergence; panel data estimation; biases; maximum likelihood; US states;

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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