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Forecasting with missing data: Application to a real case

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  • Pedro Delicado
  • Ana Justel

Abstract

This paper presents a comparative analysis of linear and mixed models for short term forecasting of a real data series with a high percentage of missing data. Data are the series of significant wave heights registered at regular periods of three hours by a buoy placed in the Bay of Biscay. The series is interpolated with a linear predictor which minimizes the forecast mean square error. The linear models are seasonal ARIMA models and the mixed models have a linear component and a non linear seasonal component. The non linear component is estimated by a non parametric regression of data versus time. Short term forecasts, no more than two days ahead, are of interest because they can be used by the port authorities to notice the fleet. Several models are fitted and compared by their forecasting behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Delicado & Ana Justel, 1997. "Forecasting with missing data: Application to a real case," Economics Working Papers 213, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:213
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maravall, Agustín & Peña, Daniel, 1992. "Missing observations and additive outliers in time series models," UC3M Working papers. Economics 2888, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    2. Hardle, Wolfgang & Linton, Oliver, 1986. "Applied nonparametric methods," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 38, pages 2295-2339, Elsevier.
    3. Hardle, Wolfgang & Linton, Oliver, 1986. "Applied nonparametric methods," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 38, pages 2295-2339, Elsevier.
    4. S. R. Brubacher & G. Tunnicliffe Wilson, 1976. "Interpolating Time Series with Application to the Estimation of Holiday Effects on Electricity Demand," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 25(2), pages 107-116, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Significant wave height; mean square error; linear interpolation; ARIMA models; nonparametric smoothing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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