IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unm/unumer/2007003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimations of US debt dynamics: Growth cum debt and the savings glut in Kouri’s model

Author

Listed:
  • Ziesemer, Thomas

    () (UNU-MERIT and University of Maastricht)

Abstract

We derive the central differential equation of the neoclassical growth model for the case of a CES (constant elasticity of substitution) production function with perfect capital movement in terms of the debt/GDP ratio and estimate it in several ways for the United States and in a later step the whole model. Debt data are derived from the accumulation of differences between investment and savings. The result is that at least since 1960 the US debt/GDP ratio follows the pattern of a stable differential equation, which will lead to a long-run debtor position. The debt/GDP ratio will approach a value between 50% and 60% (depending on the specification used) unless a structural break increases the world interest rates or, similarly, US spreads reduce the US demand for foreign debt. A value of 50% will be achieved around 2040. We also find short-run deviations from this long-run path, which are characterized by non-sustainable explosive debt growth. These phases are characterized by high interest rates and followed by devaluations of the dollar. Our simple method allows detecting such phases early on by way of testing a stability condition rather than working with arbitrary threshold levels. The estimation of the whole model yields an elasticity of substitution for capital and labour of .155 with autocorrelation correction (and 1/3 without), a growth rate of labour-augmenting technical change of 1.65% (1.5%) and a corresponding initial level of labour productivity as of 1959 of about 350 (320). As a complement to the growth model we estimate the Kouri model using time-varying coefficients obtaining a forecast of the debt/GDP ratio of about 57% for 2050 as for the growth model. As the rest of the world is catching up with the USA in terms of wealth this is a long-run version of Bernanke's savings glut idea.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziesemer, Thomas, 2007. "Estimations of US debt dynamics: Growth cum debt and the savings glut in Kouri’s model," MERIT Working Papers 003, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  • Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2007003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.merit.unu.edu/publications/wppdf/2007/wp2007-003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chanda, Areendam, 2008. "The rise in returns to education and the decline in household savings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 436-469, February.
    2. Aart Kraay & Norman Loayza & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2005. "Country Portfolios," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(4), pages 914-945, June.
    3. Michele Cavallo & Cedric Tille, 2006. "Could capital gains smooth a current account rebalancing?," Staff Reports 237, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    5. Hoffmann, Mathias, 2004. "International capital mobility in the long run and the short run: can we still learn from saving-investment data?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 113-131, February.
    6. Mutz, Christine & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2005. "Prebisch-Singer: Debates, Growth Model and Estimates," Research Memorandum 007, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    7. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    8. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
    9. Charles I. Jones, 1997. "On the Evolution of the World Income Distribution," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 19-36, Summer.
    10. Genevieve Verdier, 2005. "The (Much Understated) Quantitative Role of Capital Accumulation and Saving," Macroeconomics 0507015, EconWPA.
    11. Nouriel Roubini, 2006. "The Unsustainability of the U.S. Twin Deficits," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 26(2), pages 343-356, Spring/Su.
    12. Michael Kremer, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2009. "Growth with imported resources: On the sustainability of U.S. growth and foreign debt," MERIT Working Papers 028, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Debt; Capital movements; Productivity; Time-varying coefficients; Non-linear GMM growth model estimation; Asset markets;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2007003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ad Notten). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/meritnl.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.