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Growth with imported resources: On the sustainability of U.S. growth and foreign debt

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  • Ziesemer, Thomas

    () (UNU-MERIT, and Maastricht University)

Abstract

We provide a growth model with imported resources and foreign debt accumulation providing the basis for two questions and regression equations. 1) Under what conditions do growth rates of per capita income remain positive if imported inputs such as oil have increasing real prices? 2) Is accumulation of foreign debt driven by a current account deficit of which two percent of the GDP stem from oil imports, sustainable? For both questions we provide estimates for the USA with the following results. Oil price growth rates have only a marginal impact on those of GDP per capita as long as they exceed inflation rates by not much more than they did in the past. The US foreign debt/GDP ratio follows an unstable difference equation and therefore is not sustainable. We briefly discuss possible future stabilization through the market and through policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziesemer, Thomas, 2009. "Growth with imported resources: On the sustainability of U.S. growth and foreign debt," MERIT Working Papers 028, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  • Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2009028
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    File URL: https://www.merit.unu.edu/publications/wppdf/2009/wp2009-028.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kemp, Murray C. & Van Long, Ngo, 1982. "Conditions for the survival of a small resource-importing economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1-2), pages 135-142, August.
    2. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2007. "Estimations of US debt dynamics: Growth cum debt and the savings glut in Kouri’s model," MERIT Working Papers 003, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    3. Xafa, Miranda, 2007. "Global imbalances and financial stability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 783-796.
    4. Miranda Xafa, 2007. "Global Imbalances and Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 07/111, International Monetary Fund.
    5. John Kitchen, 2007. "Sharecroppers or Shrewd Capitalists? Projections of the US Current Account, International Income Flows, and Net International Debt," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 1036-1061, November.
    6. Lippi, Francesco & Nobili, Andrea, 2008. "Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Structural VAR Analysis with Sign Restrictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 6830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2005. "Growth with perfect capital movements in CES: US Debt Dynamics and model estimation," Research Memorandum 012, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    8. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard & Cédric Tille, 2006. "Borrowing without debt? Understanding the U.S. international investment position," Staff Reports 271, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Lance Bachmeier & Qi Li & Dandan Liu, 2008. "Should Oil Prices Receive So Much Attention? An Evaluation Of The Predictive Power Of Oil Prices For The U.S. Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 528-539, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital movements; growth; sustainability;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development

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