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The Impact Of G-3 Exchange Rate Volatility On Developing Countries


  • Gerardo ESQUIVEL
  • Felipe LARRAIN B.


This paper describes G-3 exchange rate volatility and evaluates its impact on developing countries. The paper presents empirical evidence showing that G-3 exchange rate volatility has a robust and significantly negative impact on developing countries’ exports. A one percentage point increase in G-3 exchange rate volatility decreases real exports of developing countries by about 2 per cent, on average. G-3 exchange rate volatility also appears to have a negative influence on foreign direct investment to certain regions, and increases the probability of occurrence of exchange rate crises in developing countries. These results imply that greater stability in the international exchange rate system would help improve trade and foreign direct investment prospects for developing countries – and would help prevent currency crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerardo ESQUIVEL & Felipe LARRAIN B., 2002. "The Impact Of G-3 Exchange Rate Volatility On Developing Countries," G-24 Discussion Papers 16, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  • Handle: RePEc:unc:g24pap:16

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent Raymond Reinhart, 2002. "What Hurts Emerging Markets Most? G3 Exchange Rate or Interest Rate Volatility?," NBER Chapters,in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 133-170 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 1999. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows: Evidence from the European Union," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-5.
    3. Currie, David & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1990. "Evaluating the Extended Target Zone Proposal for the G3," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(399), pages 105-123, March.
    4. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 1996. "Foreign direct investment, trade, and real exchange rate linkages in developing countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 73-100.
    5. Esquivel, Gerardo & Larraín B, Felipe, 2000. "Determinantes de las crisis cambiarias," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(266), pages 191-237, abril-jun.
    6. Ronald I. McKinnon, 1999. "Euroland and East Asia in a Dollar-Based International Monetary System: Mundell Revisited," Working Papers 99020, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    7. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
    8. Richard H. Clarida, 1999. "G3 Exchange Rate Relationships: A Recap of the Record and a Review of Proposals for Change," NBER Working Papers 7434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-315, May.
    10. Brodsky, David A., 1984. "Fixed versus flexible exchange rates and the measurement of exchange rate instability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 295-306, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nidal Rashid Sabri & Marga Peeters & Diama K. Abulaban, 2012. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade integration among North and South Mediterranean countries," International Journal of Business and Globalisation, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 107-121.
    2. Gerardo Esquivel & Felipe Larraín, 2003. "¿Qué Sabemos Realmente sobre las Crisis Cambiarias?," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(121), pages 656-667.
    3. Naledi C. Modisaatsone & G.R. Motlaleng, 2013. "Impact of exchange rate volatility on Botswana`s imports," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 4(5), pages 125-138.
    4. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.

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