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Evaluating the Extended Target Zone Proposal for the G3

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  • Currie, David
  • Wren-Lewis, Simon

Abstract

This paper evaluates the extended target zone proposal of Williamson and Miller using the National Institute world economic model (GEM). Williamson and Miller's proposals envisage that real exchange rates will be controlled by movements in relative interest rates, that fiscal policy will be used to steer nominal demand towards a target which depends on capacity utilization, inflation and the current balance, and that the average level of world interest rates will be used to control global nominal demand. We evaluate the performance of these rules for the United States, Germany and Japan over the period 1975-84, using control methods to determine the best choice of parameters in the feedback rules. We then consider how history would have differed from actual events had such rules been in place. The results suggest that such rules would have led to a significant improvement in economic performance: exchange rate variability would have been reduced and the dramatic increase in United States interest rates which took place after 1980 would have been avoided.
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Suggested Citation

  • Currie, David & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1990. "Evaluating the Extended Target Zone Proposal for the G3," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(399), pages 105-123, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:100:y:1990:i:399:p:105-23
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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Caporale & Michael Chui & Stephen Hall & Brian Henry, 2003. "Evaluating the Gains to Cooperation in the G-3," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 337-356, December.
    2. Gerardo ESQUIVEL & Felipe LARRAIN B., 2002. "The Impact Of G-3 Exchange Rate Volatility On Developing Countries," G-24 Discussion Papers 16, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    3. Peter Mooslechner & Martin Schuerz, 1999. "International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination: Any Lessons for EMU? A Selective Survey of the Literature," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 171-199, September.
    4. Michael Artis, 1993. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy - the Experience of Other Countries," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Adrian Blundell-Wignall (ed.), The Exchange Rate, International Trade and the Balance of Payments Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Barrell, Ray & Dury, Karen & Hurst, Ian, 2003. "International monetary policy coordination: an evaluation using a large econometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 507-527, May.

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