The Determinants of Official and Free-Market Exchange Rates in Albania During Transition
This paper uses high-frequency data to examine the relation between official and free-market exchange rates in Albania. We use daily data to test econometrically, first, whether the official and free markets are efficient, in the sense that one cannot use exchange rate movements denominated in one currency to predict movements in another currency, and second, whether movements in the free-market rate "cause" movements in the official rate. Our results provide support for the first proposition and partial support for the second. We also report the results of a unique survey of free-market dealers in Tirana, designed to determine the main factors that influence exchange rate movements. The evidence is that country-specific factors, in particular the large flows of illegal smuggling and emigrants' remittances, are more important than flunctuations in the international exchange market.
|Date of creation:||Mar 1998|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Comparative Economics, 1999, 27(3), pp.534-552|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: School of Economics, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP|
Phone: +44 (0)1227 827497
Web page: http://www.kent.ac.uk/economics/
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Coleman, Mark, 1990. "Cointegration-based tests of daily foreign exchange market efficiency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 53-59, January.
- Perron, P, 1988.
"The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis,"
338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Bewley, Truman F, 1995. "A Depressed Labor Market as Explained by Participants," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 250-54, May.
- Ahmet Mancellari & Harry Papapanagos & Peter Sanfey, 1996. "Job creation and temporary emigration: the Albanian experience," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(2), pages 471-490, October.
- Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985.
"Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation,"
Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386.
- Pierre Perron & Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus Frequency of Observation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 732, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Robert J. Shiller & Pierre Perron, 1985. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power versus Frequency of Observation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James G. MacKinnon, 2010.
"Critical Values for Cointegration Tests,"
1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Booth, G. Geoffrey & Mustafa, Chowdhury, 1991. "Long-run dynamics of black and official exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 392-405, September.
- Thomas D. Willett & Fahim Al-Marhubi, 1994. "Currency Policies for Inflation Control in the Formerly Centrally Planned Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(6), pages 795-815, November.
- Blinder, Alan S, 1991.
"Why Are Prices Sticky? Preliminary Results from an Interview Study,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 89-96, May.
- Alan S. Blinder, 1991. "Why are Prices Sticky? Preliminary Results from an Interview Study," NBER Working Papers 3646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991.
"Cointegration: how short is the long run?,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
- Rumen Dobrinsky, 1996. "Monetary policy, macroeconomic adjustment and currency speculation under floating exchange rates: the case of Bulgaria," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(1), pages 185-210, 05.
- Copeland, Laurence S, 1991. "Cointegration Tests with Daily Exchange Rate Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 53(2), pages 185-98, May.
- Sulo Haderi & Harry Papapanagos & Peter Sanfey & Mirela Talka, 1996.
"Inflation and Stabilization in Albania,"
Studies in Economics
9613, School of Economics, University of Kent.
- Goodhart, Charles A. E. & McMahon, Patrick C. & Ngama, Yerima L., 1993. "Testing for unit roots with very high frequency spot exchange rate data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 423-438.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:9806. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tracey Girling)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.