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Profit Persistence and Stock Returns

  • Adelina Gschwandtner

    ()

  • Michael Hauser

    ()

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    This paper attempts to assemble evidence for the relationship between the product and the financial market. Drawing back on work in industrial organization, we analyze the relationship between profit persistence and expected stock returns. We show that long-run profit persistence together with other additional economic firm fundamentals have a significant impact on stock returns and on their volatility even after adjusting for risk. At the same time we bring evidence for a 'low volatility anomaly'.

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    File URL: ftp://ftp.ukc.ac.uk/pub/ejr/RePEc/ukc/ukcedp/1320.pdf
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    Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 1320.

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    Date of creation: Nov 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1320
    Contact details of provider: Postal: School of Economics, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP
    Phone: +44 (0)1227 827497
    Web page: http://www.kent.ac.uk/economics/

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    1. Enrico Onali & John Goddard, 2014. "Are European equity markets efficient? New evidence from fractal analysis," Papers 1402.1440, arXiv.org.
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    4. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    6. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Market fundamentals versus rational bubbles in stock prices: a Bayesian perspective," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 35-75.
    7. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
    8. Baur, Dirk G. & Dimpfl, Thomas & Jung, Robert C., 2012. "Stock return autocorrelations revisited: A quantile regression approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 254-265.
    9. McMillan, David G., 2009. "Revisiting dividend yield dynamics and returns predictability: Evidence from a time-varying ESTR model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 870-883, August.
    10. Ariel, Robert A, 1990. " High Stock Returns before Holidays: Existence and Evidence on Possible Causes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1611-26, December.
    11. Anita M. McGahan & Michael E. Porter, 1999. "The Persistence of Shocks to Profitability," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(1), pages 143-153, February.
    12. Zsuzsanna Fluck & Burton G. Malkiel & Richard E. Quandt, 1997. "The Predictability Of Stock Returns: A Cross-Sectional Simulation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 176-183, May.
    13. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    14. Kewei Hou & David T. Robinson, 2006. "Industry Concentration and Average Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1927-1956, 08.
    15. John H. Boyd & Gianni De Nicol√£, 2005. "The Theory of Bank Risk Taking and Competition Revisited," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1329-1343, 06.
    16. Basu, S, 1977. "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 663-82, June.
    17. David Martinez-Miera & Rafael Repullo, 2010. "Does Competition Reduce the Risk of Bank Failure?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(10), pages 3638-3664, October.
    18. David McMillan & Mark Wohar, 2011. "Sum of the parts stock return forecasting: international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(12), pages 837-845.
    19. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    20. Josef Lakonishok, Seymour Smidt, 1988. "Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 403-425.
    21. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2011. "Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 427-446, February.
    22. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
    23. Adelina Gschwandtner, 2004. "Evolution of Profit Persistence in the US: Evidence from four 20-years periods," Vienna Economics Papers 0410, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    24. Goddard, John & Wilson, John O.S., 2009. "Competition in banking: A disequilibrium approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2282-2292, December.
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