IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v48y2016i37p3538-3549.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Profit persistence and stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Adelina Gschwandtner
  • Michael Hauser

Abstract

This article attempts to assemble further empirical evidence on the relationship between the product and the financial market. Drawing back on work in industrial organization, we analyse the relationship between profit persistence and factor-adjusted stock returns looking at about 2000 listed US firms over the last 34 years. While the relationship between (current, lagged and unexpected) profits/earnings and returns has been extensively analysed before, to our knowledge this is the first study to look at the relationship between stock returns and profit persistence . We interpret profit persistence as a result of market competition and innovation of the firm. It is shown that firm-specific long-run profit persistence after correction for other additional economic fundamentals of the firm has a positive impact on four-factor adjusted returns and a negative impact on their volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Adelina Gschwandtner & Michael Hauser, 2016. "Profit persistence and stock returns," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(37), pages 3538-3549, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:37:p:3538-3549
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1142652
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2016.1142652
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2016.1142652?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anita M. McGahan & Michael E. Porter, 1999. "The Persistence of Shocks to Profitability," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(1), pages 143-153, February.
    2. Baur, Dirk G. & Dimpfl, Thomas & Jung, Robert C., 2012. "Stock return autocorrelations revisited: A quantile regression approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 254-265.
    3. Dawood Ashraf & Yener Altunbas & John Goddard, 2007. "Who Transfers Credit Risk? Determinants of the Use of Credit Derivatives by Large US Banks," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 483-500.
    4. Onali, Enrico & Goddard, John, 2011. "Are European equity markets efficient? New evidence from fractal analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 59-67, April.
    5. John Goddard & Phil Molyneux & John O.S. Wilson, 2009. "The financial crisis in Europe: evolution, policy responses and lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 17(4), pages 362-380, November.
    6. Bali, Turan G. & Cakici, Nusret & Whitelaw, Robert F., 2011. "Maxing out: Stocks as lotteries and the cross-section of expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 427-446, February.
    7. McMillan, David G., 2009. "The confusing time-series behaviour of real exchange rates: Are asymmetries important?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 692-711, October.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. McMillan, David G., 2009. "Revisiting dividend yield dynamics and returns predictability: Evidence from a time-varying ESTR model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 870-883, August.
    10. Beaver, William & McNichols, Maureen & Price, Richard, 2007. "Delisting returns and their effect on accounting-based market anomalies," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2-3), pages 341-368, July.
    11. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:661-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. John H. Boyd & Gianni De Nicoló, 2005. "The Theory of Bank Risk Taking and Competition Revisited," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1329-1343, June.
    13. Odagiri, Hiroyuki & Yamawaki, Hideki, 1986. "A study of company profit-rate time series : Japan and the United States," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, March.
    14. David Martinez-Miera & Rafael Repullo, 2010. "Does Competition Reduce the Risk of Bank Failure?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(10), pages 3638-3664, October.
    15. Adelina Gschwandtner, 2004. "Evolution of Profit Persistence in the US: Evidence from four 20-years periods," Vienna Economics Papers 0410, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    16. John Cable & Adelina Gschwandtner, 2008. "On Modelling the Persistence of Profits in the Long Run: A Test of the Standard Model for 156 US Companies, 1950-99," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 245-263.
    17. David McMillan & Mark Wohar, 2011. "Sum of the parts stock return forecasting: international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(12), pages 837-845.
    18. Basu, S, 1977. "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 663-682, June.
    19. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    20. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    21. Ariel, Robert A, 1990. "High Stock Returns before Holidays: Existence and Evidence on Possible Causes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1611-1626, December.
    22. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    23. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Market fundamentals versus rational bubbles in stock prices: a Bayesian perspective," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 35-75.
    24. Josef Lakonishok, Seymour Smidt, 1988. "Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 403-425.
    25. Goddard, John & Wilson, John O.S., 2009. "Competition in banking: A disequilibrium approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2282-2292, December.
    26. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    27. Zsuzsanna Fluck & Burton G. Malkiel & Richard E. Quandt, 1997. "The Predictability Of Stock Returns: A Cross-Sectional Simulation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 176-183, May.
    28. Kewei Hou & David T. Robinson, 2006. "Industry Concentration and Average Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1927-1956, August.
    29. Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Molyneux, Philip & Staikouras, Sotiris K. & Wilson, John O.S. & Zhao, Gang, 2013. "Exchange rate risk and the equity performance of financial intermediaries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 271-282.
    30. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
    31. Adelina Gschwandtner, 2012. "Evolution Of Profit Persistence In The Usa: Evidence From Three Periods," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 80(2), pages 172-209, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dinesh Jaisinghani & Mahesh Joshi & Jatin Goyal & Sharad Sharma, 2023. "Persistence of financial efficiency in indian hospitality and tourism industry: a dynamic panel Approach," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1845-1863, April.
    2. Tamirat, Aderajew AS & Trujillo-Barrera, Andres A. & Pennings, Joost M. E., 2018. "Do Profit Rates Converge? Evidence on the Persistence of Farm Profit in the Long-run," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273791, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    2. Qianwei Ying & Tahir Yousaf & Qurat ul Ain & Yasmeen Akhtar & Muhammad Shahid Rasheed, 2019. "Stock Investment and Excess Returns: A Critical Review in the Light of the Efficient Market Hypothesis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, June.
    3. Hou, Kewei & Xue, Chen & Zhang, Lu, 2017. "Replicating Anomalies," Working Paper Series 2017-10, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    4. Mark Grinblatt & Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2002. "What Do We Really Know About the Cross-Sectional Relation Between Past and Expected Returns?," NBER Working Papers 8744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Estrategias Cuantitativas De Valor Y Retornos Por Accion De Largo," Finance 0503029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:pri:cepsud:91malkiel is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    8. Auer, Benjamin R. & Rottmann, Horst, 2019. "Have capital market anomalies worldwide attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 61-79.
    9. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    10. Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Working Papers 111, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    11. A. Balakrishnan, 2016. "Size, Value, and Momentum Effects in Stock Returns: Evidence from India," Vision, , vol. 20(1), pages 1-8, March.
    12. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, January.
    13. Sawaliya, Priya & Sinha, Pankaj, 2018. "Behaviour of asset pricing models in pre and post-recession period: an evidence from India," MPRA Paper 93084, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Jan 2019.
    14. Bui, Dien Giau & Kong, De-Rong & Lin, Chih-Yung & Lin, Tse-Chun, 2023. "Momentum in machine learning: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    15. Aníbal Báez-Díaz & Pervaiz Alam, 2013. "Tax conformity of earnings and the pricing of accruals," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 509-538, April.
    16. Balakrishnan, Karthik & Bartov, Eli & Faurel, Lucile, 2010. "Post loss/profit announcement drift," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 20-41, May.
    17. Michael Heinrich Baumann, 2022. "Beating the market? A mathematical puzzle for market efficiency," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 45(1), pages 279-325, June.
    18. Grinblatt, Mark & Moskowitz, Tobias J., 2004. "Predicting stock price movements from past returns: the role of consistency and tax-loss selling," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 541-579, March.
    19. Turan G. Bali & Robert F. Engle & Yi Tang, 2017. "Dynamic Conditional Beta Is Alive and Well in the Cross Section of Daily Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3760-3779, November.
    20. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Salience theory and the cross-section of stock returns: International and further evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 689-725.
    21. Praveen Kumar Das & S P Uma Rao, 2011. "Value Premiums And The January Effect: International Evidence," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(4), pages 1-15.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:37:p:3538-3549. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.