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The Lag in Effect of Inflation Targeting and Policy Evaluation

Author

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  • WenShwo Fang

    (Feng Chia University)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    (University of Connecticut)

Abstract

The lag in effect of monetary policy contains vital information for the policy evaluation. Allowing for a time-varying treatment effect, we show that inflation targeting effectively lowers inflation for both developed and developing countries. Developed countries reach their targets rapidly with a two-year lag in effect. Developing countries, however, reduce inflation gradually toward their targets and do not reach their ultimate goal by the end year of 2007.

Suggested Citation

  • WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2010. "The Lag in Effect of Inflation Targeting and Policy Evaluation," Working papers 2010-01, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2010-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
    2. Alvaro Angeriz & Philip Arestis, 2008. "Assessing inflation targeting through intervention analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 293-317, April.
    3. Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400.
    4. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2007. "Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2521-2533, November.
    5. Milton Friedman, 1961. "The Lag in Effect of Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69, pages 447-447.
    6. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1982. "Monetary Trends in the United States and United Kingdom: Their Relation to Income, Prices, and Interest Rates, 1867–1975," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie82-2, March.
    7. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2009. "Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 118-123, May.
    8. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 3(Aug), pages 9-110.
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    Cited by:

    1. Balima, Wenéyam Hippolyte & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2017. "Sovereign debt risk in emerging market economies: Does inflation targeting adoption make any difference?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 360-377.
    2. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Edoh, Eyah Denise, 2023. "Tax revenue and mobile money in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. Xiang Deng & Zhi Huang & Xiang Cheng, 2019. "FinTech and Sustainable Development: Evidence from China Based on P2P Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-19, November.
    4. Kadria, Mohamed & Ben Aissa, Mohamed Safouane, 2016. "Inflation targeting and public deficit in emerging countries: A time varying treatment effect approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 108-114.
    5. Balima, Hippolyte W. & Kilama, Eric G. & Tapsoba, René, 2020. "Inflation targeting: Genuine effects or publication selection bias?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    6. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Christina Christou & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Inflation-Targeting and Inflation Volatility: International Evidence from the Cosine-Squared Cepstrum," Working Papers 202021, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Christina Christou & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Inflation-targeting and inflation volatility: International evidence from the cosine-squared cepstrum," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 167, pages 29-38.
    8. Rangan Gupta, 2011. "Growth-Effects of Inflation Targeting: The Role of Financial Sector Development," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(1), pages 65-87, May.
    9. Hippolyte W. BALIMA & Eric Gabin KILAMA & René TAPSOBA, 2017. "Settling the Inflation Targeting Debate: Lights from a Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers 4080, FERDI.
    10. Jean-Louis Combes & Rasmane Ouedraogo & Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba, 2016. "Structural shifts in aid dependency and fiscal policy in developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(46), pages 4426-4446, October.
    11. Jean-Louis Combes & Rasmané Ouedraogo & Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba, 2016. "What Does Aid Do to Fiscal Policy? New Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2016/112, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    time lag; inflation targeting; time-varying treatment effect; policy evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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