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Inflation-targeting and inflation volatility: International evidence from the cosine-squared cepstrum

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolaos Antonakakis
  • Christina Christou
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana
  • Rangan Gupta

Abstract

Existing empirical evidence on the effect of inflation-targeting on inflation volatility is, at best, mixed. However, comparing inflation volatility across alternative monetary policy regimes, i.e., pre- and post-inflation-targeting, begs the question. The question is not whether the volatility of inflation has changed, but instead whether the volatility is different than it otherwise would have been. Given this, our paper uses the cosine-squared cepstrum to provide overwhelming international evidence that inflation targeting has indeed reduced inflation volatility in 22 out of the 24 countries considered in our sample of established inflation-targeters, than it would have been the case if the central banks in these countries did not decide to set a target for inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Antonakakis & Christina Christou & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Inflation-targeting and inflation volatility: International evidence from the cosine-squared cepstrum," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 167, pages 29-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2021-q3-167-12
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Phiri, 2023. "Fisher’s hypothesis in time–frequency space: a premier using South Africa as a case study," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 4255-4284, October.
    2. Chevaughn van der Westhuizen & Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye, 2022. "Is Inflation Uncertainty a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? The Inflation-Inflation Uncertainty Nexus and Inflation Targeting in South Africa," Working Papers 202254, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. I. D. Medvedev, 2023. "Comparison of the Efficiency of Pure and of Hybrid Inflation Targeting from the Point of View of Inflation Control," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 274-283, April.
    4. Chevaughn van der Westhuizen & Reneé van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye, 2023. "Is inflation uncertainty a self‐fulfilling prophecy in South Africa?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 91(3), pages 306-329, September.
    5. Lenin Arango-Castillo & María José Orraca & Regina Briseño, 2025. "Inflation volatility across advanced and emerging economies during the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Papers 2025-13, Banco de México.
    6. MBASSI, Christophe Martial & HYOBA, Suzanne Edwige Clarisse & SHAHBAZ, Muhammad, 2023. "Does monetary policy really matter for environmental protection? The case of inflation targeting," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 427-452.
    7. Bareith, Tibor & Varga, József, 2022. "Az inflációs célt követő rendszer hozzájárulása az infláció mérsékléséhez Magyarországon [The contribution of the inflation targeting system to reducing inflation in Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 989-1008.
    8. Mbassi, Christophe Martial & Samba, Cyrille Michel & Elomo Zogo, Thérèse, 2025. "Does monetary policy fuel energy consumption across the world? Focus on inflation targeting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy

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