Upper Secondary Pathways and Progression to Further Study

Upper secondary education is critical in preparing young people for further study. This paper explores how various upper-secondary education pathways influence students' progression to further study, shedding light on their effectiveness in expanding educational opportunities. Using linked English administrative data, we compare progression outcomes across a range of pathways, including the brand new T level vocational pathway and the increasingly popular mixed (academic and vocational) track. We consider progression across three dimensions - overall progression to further study, progression to high-quality further study and preparedness for further study, proxied by drop out rates. We find that students on the new T level pathway are more likely to progress to higher technical qualifications and advanced apprenticeships than all other pathways. However, T level students are significantly less likely to enter university and, when they do, are disproportionately represented in lower-tariff institutions and courses. This is despite policy promises that T levels would be a "springboard" to higher education (HE). Conditional on progressing to further study, T level students are well prepared for their chosen course of study and they drop out at significantly lower rates than other learners. We also show that some pathways are more effective at supporting low SES students in progressing to further study.